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~785 keys
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Unusual Hong Kong Cone Death at Dusk
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Requested

I'm off for summer now

Hey remember when Wiz unboxed this and put me onto my crippling addiction for unboxing EOTLs


Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/10402103810

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165171290#!/compare/1682467200/1682985600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198279927621#!/compare/1680998400/1682812800

Bulk for Knifestorm Towering Pillar of Hats - I might update that


Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/3521089734 - DUPED

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056842766#!/compare/1680048000/1680134400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144213775#!/compare/1680048000/1680134400

Sold for:

Burning Flames Hunter in Darkness - https://pastebin.com/veX9njzE - If a price mod can look through this and see what they think

120 keys


Pasting my conclusion from the pastebin:

I'm left with the difficult decision to either price at 288 since it is technically the only usable sale here but I would much rather range this from 249 - 288 as a mini.

I'll use 288 keys the mini since that's the same hunter used in the HKC trade meaning the buyer definitely valued the Hunter at 288 in that trade.


https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Death+at+Dusk+Hong+Kong+Cone&at=2023-03-29T15%3A24%3A00.000Z - Buyout of 450 keys


288 + 120 = 408 keys


Sale 3 Hana >> Crimson

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160856661#!/compare/1684108800/1684195200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198194263363#!/compare/1683763200/1684195200

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1108110805817364571/1108133893246304266/dow43t34t34nload.png - 450 keys

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1108110805817364571/1108133893598621716/do435435252wnload.png - Screenshot of the HKC


Taking as 450 keys


Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/3280841934

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099521803#!/compare/1683590400/1683676800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090373633#!/compare/1683763200/1684281600

https://prnt.sc/Vcqh-l2u6ki_

Sold through mannco, not using as they are no longer considered proof

Sale would come to about 591 keys though, and it is the only "usable" clean sale


Sales

408, 450 and 591


Conclusion

408 - 450 seems to be the call here given that the mannco sale can't be used. This should be fine as a raise based off of a dupe though.

I'm comfortable with this being raised by a dupe based off the listing prices on clean hkcs being at the same price of the duped for a little while now.

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Death+at+Dusk+Hong+Kong+Cone&at=2023-04-30T02%3A19%3A00.000Z - Clean at 525 keys and 475 keys here.


It should also be noted that the 591 key mannco sale would likely be excluded based off the much lower clean buyouts too

    https://prnt.sc/Rk8psKq5fcU5

    https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30177;5;u90

    Sale at $1500 pretty much today, $1500 / $2.02 = ~742 keys


    I am gonna go ahead and say this should be closed since it excludes 2 cash sales, that also happen to be the only usable clean sales.


    Waiting for mod response thanks


    EDIT: https://backpack.tf/item/9185613786 item history for clarity, it is clean

      https://prnt.sc/ILw-zxo50cCb

      Confirmation on the burning hunter sale

        Got added by 2 to update a new sale


        Item history

        https://backpack.tf/item/10402103810

        Sale

        https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198279927621#!/compare/1685145600/1686355200

        https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069909083#!/compare/1686268800/1686355200

        Sold for:

        Strange Normal Stickybomb Launcher - indate at 432.5 keys

        Strange Normal Grenade Launcher - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6487bb56ca89c4c3fe07cbd1 - 300 keys

        Strange Orbiting Fire Brotherhood of Arms - https://pastebin.com/k0SwZnr1 - 107 keys


        432.5 + 300 + 107 = 839.5 keys


        https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Death+at+Dusk+Hong+Kong+Cone&at=2023-06-09T15%3A55%3A00.000Z - 740 keys buyout


        Caps at 740 keys easily, even if the ofire boa is capped at 90


        More concluding remarks

        We now have 2 duped sale evaluated at 408 and 450 keys

        There are now 3 clean sales for 591 (mannco), 740 (above) and 742 (mp)


        I think I'll keep this open for mod remarks but 740 - 742 (or 740 flat) should not be an option based on the other clean cash sale 150 keys cheaper, but the current range only uses duped sales which also shouldn't happen.


        Ultimately the suggestion will be closed after mod response, just waiting on that, feel free to ping me in suggestion-discussion on discord to ask anymore questions.

        Another trade courtesy of Soft Tofu:

        https://imgur.com/a/cR04yUF

        20th August sale at:

        450 keys

        M4A1-S Printstream (Field-Tested)

        https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/730/M4A1-S%20%7C%20Printstream%20(Field-Tested)

        Aug 20th 12AM - £164.41 / £1.76 = 93.41 keys

        Aug 20th 1AM - £173.89 / £1.75 = 99.37 keys

        Aug 20th 2AM - £178.58 / £1.75 = 102.05 keys

        Aug 20th 4AM - £147.99 / £1.75 = 84.57 keys

        Aug 20th 5AM - £158.11 / £1.75 = 90.35 keys

        Aug 20th 7AM - £165.89 / £1.75 = 94.79 keys

        Aug 20th 9AM - £154.66 / £1.75 = 88.38 keys

        Aug 20th 12PM - £156.04 / £1.76 = 88.66 keys

        Aug 20th 1PM - £164.97 / £1.75 = 94.27 keys

        Aug 20th 2PM - £149.37 / £1.77 = 84.39 keys

        Aug 20th 3PM - £165.95 / £1.76 = 94.29 keys

        Aug 20th 4PM - £165.89 / £1.75 = 94.79 keys

        Aug 20th 5PM - £155.52 / £1.75 = 88.87 keys

        Aug 20th 6PM - £165.90 / £1.76 = 94.26 keys

        Aug 20th 7PM - £149.37 / £1.75 = 85.35 keys

        Aug 20th 10PM - £148.17 / £1.76 = 84.19 keys

        Aug 20th 11PM - £148.16 / £1.78 = 83.24 keys


        Average of these:

        (93.41 + 99.37 + 102.05 + 84.57 + 90.35 + 94.79 + 88.38 + 88.66 + 94.27 + 84.39 + 94.29 + 94.79 + 88.87 + 94.26 + 85.35 + 84.19 + 83.24) / 17 = 90.90 keys


        450 + 91 = 541 keys


        This is a duped history, https://backpack.tf/item/3521089734, should be this one


        Guess another duped sale much lower than clean


          Thanks for adding to this with additional sales. I apologise for the delay in handling this also. After some deliberation, we believe that 740 flat would be the best way to go here. Despite the duped sales, I think solely using the clean ones will be fine.

          If you could resuggest at 740 that would be wonderful.

            Yeah I figured 740 flat would work. Will do it later tonight, thanks.