Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/13001526569

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048571227#!/compare/1684281600/1684540800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192607141#!/compare/1684454400/1684540800

Can't load seller inv

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/12965922236

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963802299#!/compare/1683331200/1684540800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1683676800/1683763200

No clue

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/12880185043

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199019420779#!/compare/1681344000/1683072000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1681689600/1681776000

Looks like a bulk inv buy

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/12876798690

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199053759090#!/compare/1681344000/1681430400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170162477#!/compare/1675987200/1683244800

No clue

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/12853280156

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049447942#!/compare/1680912000/1680998400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1680912000/1680998400

Looks like ~18 keys

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1681084800/1681171200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102083890#!/compare/1681084800/1681257600

Can't say for certain

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/12832233601

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069881436#!/compare/1682294400/1682812800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101731701#!/compare/1682294400/1682380800

Can't match anything

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101731701#!/compare/1682467200/1682553600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199189814852#!/compare/1682467200/1682553600

No clue

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199189814852#!/compare/1683244800/1683331200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313965956#!/compare/1683331200/1683590400

19 keys?

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/12757470940

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045863377#!/compare/1681344000/1681776000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091986289#!/compare/1681344000/1682553600

No clue

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/12746878352

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147857768#!/compare/1678233600/1678924800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199189814852#!/compare/1678320000/1678406400

No clue

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199189814852#!/compare/1679184000/1679270400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198238034502#!/compare/1670457600/1679443200

Can't match keys..

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198238034502#!/compare/1679443200/1681344000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111658162#!/compare/1681257600/1681344000

Can only match a few ref

Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111658162#!/compare/1681344000/1681430400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072441047#!/compare/1681344000/1681430400

17 keys?

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072441047#!/compare/1681603200/1681862400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1681603200/1681689600

No clue

Sale 16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1682380800/1682467200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198356313666#!/compare/1682208000/1682726400

Can only match a Cool Festivized Killstreak Health and Hell (Green) Rocket Launcher (Battle Scarred), can't find any sales for that anyways

Item 9

https://backpack.tf/item/12743084050

Sale 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199219758482#!/compare/1679011200/1679097600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081907770#!/compare/1677801600/1679356800

Can't match anything

Sale 18

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081907770#!/compare/1679875200/1683158400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198365949179#!/compare/1674950400/1682812800

No clue

Item 10

https://backpack.tf/item/12728708992

Sale 19

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199019420779#!/compare/1681344000/1683072000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1681689600/1681776000

Looks like a bulk inv buy

Item 11

https://backpack.tf/item/12720613588

Sale 20

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1680048000/1680134400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991678236#!/compare/1646179200/1683676800

No clue

Item 12

https://backpack.tf/item/12707280852

Sale 21

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055420667#!/compare/1677369600/1683676800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043939280#!/compare/1677369600/1677628800

No clue

Item 13

https://backpack.tf/item/12562489615

Sale 22

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199381088219#!/compare/1677715200/1677801600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127652476#!/compare/1677715200/1677628800

Can't find buyer compares

Sale 23

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127652476#!/compare/1682467200/1682553600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152648165#!/compare/1682467200/1682553600

19 keys

Everything else is more or less gambling

Item 14

https://backpack.tf/item/12541799275

Sale 24

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114899125#!/compare/1677542400/1679270400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111383857#!/compare/1661990400/1680134400

No clue

Item 15

https://backpack.tf/item/12538671123

Sale 25

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111292616#!/compare/1683331200/1683417600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114899125#!/compare/1683331200/1683504000

No clue

Item 16

https://backpack.tf/item/12494088519

Sale 26

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063175935#!/compare/1680998400/1681084800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996095002#!/compare/1680912000/1681084800

Bulk for a Blizzardy Storm Gentleman's Ushanka

Sale 27

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996095002#!/compare/1682121600/1682812800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1682380800/1682467200

Can't match anything

Sale 28

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1682726400/1682812800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198194142195#!/compare/1681862400/1682812800

Can't say for certain

Sale 29

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198194142195#!/compare/1682812800/1683158400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799601783#!/compare/1683072000/1683244800

Untrace on buyer side, but looks like 18 keys?

Sale 30

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799601783#!/compare/1683072000/1683244800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1683158400/1683244800

Likely a bulk buy

Sale 31

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31344;5;u278

Still listed

Item 17

https://backpack.tf/item/12472426974

Sale 32

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038666068#!/compare/1678320000/1679443200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1678492800/1678665600

Bulk for a Scorching Flames Seared Sorcerer?

Item 18

https://backpack.tf/item/12435483308

Covering mp.tf at the end

Item 19

https://backpack.tf/item/12410757266

Sale 33

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129552058#!/compare/1677715200/1678233600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994902942#!/compare/1681257600/1681776000

No clue

Item 20

https://backpack.tf/item/12409865928

Covering mp.tf at the end

Mp.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31344;5;u278

$65.00 / $2.03 = ~32 keys (Mar 10)

$65.00 / $2.09 = ~31 keys (Mar 26)

$44.95 / $2.08 = ~22 keys (Apr 12)

$65.00 / $2.10 = ~31 keys (Apr 14)

$65.00 / $2.10 = ~31 keys (Apr 21)

$64.00 / $2.00 = ~32 keys (May 25)

Total Sales

17, 18, 18, 19, 19, 22, 31, 31, 31, 32, 32

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Starlight%20Haze%20Oktoberfester&at=2023-05-26T09:57:31.556Z

Buyer at 17

Sellers <= 30 are relatively new

31 / 32 seems like a common selling pt

I would go with a wide range of 18-32 but that feels a bit too wide for me, so I'm gonna take 19 - 31 keys instead...