https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30542;5;u62

It sold on mp once again for 119.99 on Jul 26.

Keys @ 1.95

199.99/1.95 = 61.5ish keys.

The new sale supports the price sugg

New sales:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273331466#!/compare/1695427200/1695600000 - Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112222009#!/compare/1693267200/1693353600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1692921600/1693353600 - Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396959351#!/compare/1692835200/1694131200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112222009#!/compare/1692835200/1692921600 - Sold for 45 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396959351#!/compare/1692748800/1692835200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074621436#!/compare/1692576000/1692835200 - Sold for 43 keys - they paid ~49 so excluding this sale

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068301070#!/compare/1691107200/1695427200 - Sold for a Stormy Storm Sophisticated Smoker (46) + 3 keys - they resold for 43, excluding sale

With the lengthy sellers around your suggested range and having 3 lower sales, I'd include 45 keys here