Take 4. aj helped in second take, and K1ng pointed out changes that needed making.

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/8605614068

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1686528000/1686614400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316130764#!/compare/1686182400/1686614400

Unusable

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316130764#!/compare/1686700800/1686873600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074019114#!/compare/1686787200/1686873600

Needs minis for the Starstorm Plat Pickel and MG Hot Dogger. Wasn't able to complete them given the item histories provided by aj, so unusable. Even if it was, appears to be a low sale. Pickel was dumped to a bot quickly after.

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074019114#!/compare/1688515200/1688774400

Can't find buyer side inv history, but was able to get a screenshot from seller to confirm:

https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/2029483306290755027/9917529785040B4888D911D831038980EFFC3805/

125

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/12368492656

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188639765#!/compare/1682899200/1683072000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198867208675#!/compare/1682899200/1682985600

135 keys pure

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198867208675#!/compare/1683676800/1683849600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107249245#!/compare/1683763200/1683849600

At first it looked like 132 flat - but King pointed out the collector's wrap assassin was bought with 48 keys from the sale on the same day:

-- 180 keys go from 3p to buyer - split in this fashion:

--- 132 keys end up with seller, separately from wrap.

--- 48 keys go from buyer 'directly' to seller of the wrap - this indicates either the wrap or the 48 were used in the specs sale.

-- The wrap goes from seller of the wrap to seller of the specs.

180 keys

Conclusion:

Sales 1&2 are unusable (<120 on sale 2)

Sale 3 at 125

Sale 4 at 135

Sale 5 at 180

K1ng pointed out the 180 looks like an outlier. Using a grubbs test with a significance level of 5%, this hunch is confirmed.

So, we have 125-135.

Big thanks to aj and K1ng for their help.