Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/12855859608

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1685923200/1686096000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151502845#!/compare/1685664000/1686009600

https://imgur.com/a/t83bBpr

One currently listed for ~8.5 keys, that's probs what it sold for here

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151502845#!/compare/1686009600/1686268800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047786061#!/compare/1685059200/1686355200

Can't load seller inv

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/12514357052

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134214128#!/compare/1684108800/1684195200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198942323359#!/compare/1684108800/1684195200

Not unusual yet

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198942323359#!/compare/1686441600/1686528000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074080874#!/compare/1686182400/1686700800

Not unusual yet

Probably unusualfied after buying off mp.tf and dumped to scrap, no clue what the value is here

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/12507445895

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198999159432#!/compare/1682899200/1683072000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1683158400/1683244800

Not unusual yet

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1683244800/1683331200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1683158400/1683244800

Unusualfied at some point here

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1683590400/1683676800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199237530613#!/compare/1683590400/1683676800

No clue

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199237530613#!/compare/1684281600/1684368000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1684281600/1684368000

Can only match ref

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/11102082284

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1684022400/1684108800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375#!/compare/1684108800/1684195200

Probably gambling?

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375#!/compare/1689292800/1689811200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1689292800/1689379200

No clue

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/5448281046

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155110999#!/compare/1687305600/1687392000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198388159799#!/compare/1687392000/1687478400

~2.65 keys?, this feels incomplete

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/5412619785

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1683244800/1683331200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334039487#!/compare/1683244800/1683331200

Unusualfied here

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334039487#!/compare/1683417600/1683504000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199187383421#!/compare/1683417600/1683504000

Not too sure, can only match ref

Sale 14

Bot - - > Bot Owner

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/6459267266

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060856516#!/compare/1686096000/1686182400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199446736742#!/compare/1685923200/1686096000

Likely bulk for a Morning Glory Birdcage?

Sale 16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199446736742#!/compare/1686182400/1686441600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114299178#!/compare/1686441600/1686528000

Untrace on buyer side, was ~5 keys?

Sale 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114299178#!/compare/1686355200/1686441600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1686355200/1686441600

Untrace on seller side

Mp.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1174;5;u3006

$20.27 / $1.95 = ~10 keys (Jul 20)

Total Sales

5, 8.5, 10

5 was dumped to scrap so we can exclude that

8.5 seller(s) are relatively new

So let's go with a more conservative drop of 8.5 - 10 keys c: