Haven't done a Collector's in a while

https://backpack.tf/item/2417313878 Tradebacked

https://backpack.tf/item/2553578110

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140559064#!/compare/1685577600/1685923200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160609968#!/compare/1685404800/1686787200

https://backpack.tf/item/3693471532

54 keys (buy order):

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186922501#!/compare/1684195200/1684281600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259733876#!/compare/1684195200/1684281600

50 keys match, either more was involved or the bot sold with a loss:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259733876#!/compare/1687132800/1687219200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015947880#!/compare/1686528000/1687305600

https://backpack.tf/item/4001729588

53 keys (buy order):

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198318204830#!/compare/1684195200/1684886400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088878793#!/compare/1684627200/1685145600

The history doesn't appear yet, but there was a sale at 77 keys (credit to Sardeenz for the screenshot) https://imgur.com/wYsW6Q3

~~

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/222;14

July 26: $195.99/1.95=100.5 ~101 keys

~~

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Collector%27s%20Mad%20Milk

https://steamcommunity.com/market/pricehistory/?appid=440&market_hash_name=Collector%27s%20Mad%20Milk

June 2: $190.61/2.31=82.52 ~83 keys

July 1: $97.66/2.17=45 keys (buy order)

July 8: $150/2.16=69.44 ~69 keys

July 9: $90.32/2.13=42.4 ~42 keys (buy order)

July 23: $194.05/2.32=83.64 ~83 keys

Unsolds:

https://backpack.tf/item/13069545219 77 keys, 2 months

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/222;14 ~97.5 keys

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Collector%27s%20Mad%20Milk ~86.88 keys

Buyers:

BPTF: up to ~40 keys

MPTF: N/A

SCM: ~43 keys

Sales: 42, 45, 50 (likely higher), 53, 54, 69, 77, 83, 83, 101

Given the seller at 77 for 2 months, 83-101 looks high, they're all cash sales too

42 looks low too, however I don't think all the buy order dumps should be excluded since it's a common trading point. Gonna exclude 45 too so the range is more balanced. I'm not convinced that the sale at 50 was actually 50 so excluding that too

Going with 53-77 keys with outliers on each end