We can ignore the Marketplace.tf sales on 12 and 11 August and earlier as they are much higher than the sales shown previously as well as the current sell orders on Backpack.tf.
Taking the four sales today on Marketplace.tf and my purchases of this item, excluding the one at 5.39 keys as it falls below the current buy orders, a reasonable range would be 5.5–6.4 keys.
Below are trades that I made. These trades are from 10 August 2023 to 13 August 2023 (today).
Bought for 6.43 keys (6 keys, 24.44 ref): https://i.imgur.com/BcTToL1.png
Bought for 5.62 keys (5 keys, 35.33 ref): https://i.imgur.com/veH8xmN.png
Bought for 5.39 keys (5 keys, 22 ref), and bought for 5.51 keys (5 keys, 29 ref): https://i.imgur.com/fqRRI0u.png
Recent Marketplace.tf sales
(Keys go for $2.04 on Marketplace.tf, having sold 5,855 at that price today.)
– 13 Aug: $12.66 × 4
– 12 Aug: $15.66 × 1
– 11 Aug: $18 × 1
Divided by price of a key ($2.04), it’s: 6.20 keys, 7.76 keys, and 8.82 keys, respectively.
Many bots are auto-buying for 5.45 keys (5 keys, 25.77 ref) – https://i.imgur.com/ZZZrfvv.png – so my one purchase that was below this cannot count.
Many unsold, frequently bumped sell orders, most of which by bots, at well below the current price, which is 8.75 keys (8 keys, 42.55 ref).
Unsolds at 5.7 keys to 6.74 keys and higher. Multiple unsolds at 6 keys. Screenshot: https://i.imgur.com/20kC9E0.png
We can ignore the Marketplace.tf sales on 12 and 11 August and earlier as they are much higher than the sales shown previously as well as the current sell orders on Backpack.tf.
Taking the four sales today on Marketplace.tf and my purchases of this item, excluding the one at 5.39 keys as it falls below the current buy orders, a reasonable range would be 5.5–6.4 keys.