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Item 1
https://backpack.tf/item/13062361986
Sale #1
Untraceable-
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125477501#!/compare/1694476800/1695168000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076698924#!/compare/1694995200/1695168000
Item 2
https://backpack.tf/item/11653506743
Sale #2
Sold for 220 keys-
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140316312#!/compare/1687564800/1687651200
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198815633513#!/compare/1687651200/1690934400
Item 3
https://backpack.tf/item/10880162125
Sale #3
Untraceable?-
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258004959#!/compare/1692230400/1695168000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199073805105#!/compare/1692576000/1692662400
Sale #4
Sold for a Cloud 9 Cotten Head (40.5 keys) + a Pumpkin Moon Brain-Warming Wear (42.5 keys) + a Disco Beat Down Brotherhood of Arms (130 keys) = 40.5+42.5+130 = 213ish keys-
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199073805105#!/compare/1692662400/1692835200
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139627699#!/compare/1692662400/1692835200
MP.TF Sale #1
Sold for $399.99 on September 19, 2023
Average Key Price @ $2.04ish
399.99/2.04 = 196.07ish keys
Unknown History
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30175;5;u14
Sales @ 196, 213, 220
Given the seller @ 200 is only 11 days old it should be fine to take the two sales higher than that
Rounding and taking 200-220 here
Looks like the 200 Key seller sold for 175 Keys:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116779194#!/compare/1697241600/1697328000
There's also this sale, but it won't be relevant as it's better used on the beanie:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076698924#!/compare/1697500800/1697587200
This should be resuggested at 175-220.