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Item 1
https://backpack.tf/item/7980643973
Sale #1
Sold for 29 keys (ID "13323163187" of the unusual matches)-
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1690761600/1690848000
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198288892726#!/compare/1690675200/1691452800
Marketplace.tf Sales
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/107;5;u61
MP.TF Sale #1
Sold for $69.99 on July 30, 2023
Average Key Price @ $1.95ish
69.99/1.95 = 35.89ish keys
Unknown History
MP.TF Sale #2
Sold for $79.99 on September 23, 2023
Average Key Price @ $2.02ish
79.99/2.02 = 39.59ish keys
Unknown History
Sales @ 29, 36, 40
Excluding 29 here given how close it is to buy orders
Taking 36-40 here
The market not long ago:
https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Miami+Nights+Ye+Olde+Baker+Boy&at=2023-08-19T06%3A33%3A00.000Z
Sales (credits Lemons):
29.5 seller sold untraceably https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198288892726#!/compare/1691452800/1696464000
32 sold for spelled vintage bill + 7 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164814063#!/compare/1692316800/1692662400 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199073805105#!/compare/1692489600/1692576000 - seems much much higher than 32 which is strange.
other sale from that history:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199073805105#!/compare/1692921600/1693353600 - untrace
So with what we have here, it makes sense to include the 29 sale in range, because otherwise we would be excluding all lower data points in favour of all higher ones.
29-40 should work.
Pretty sure that second sale you posted seems strange because it was sold with a Blizzardy Storm Swagman's Swatter for that amount as seen here? https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199073805105#!/compare/1692489600/1692662400 Will still resuggest with the given range tho!