Suggestion: Sakura Smoke Bomb Airdog at 15–20 keys

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Mini for Pumpkin Party Hollowed Helm

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/10371805670

Sale #1

Only one key traces when using IDs from the unusual, untraceable and incomplete-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107625559#!/compare/1692662400/1694649600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991526675#!/compare/1692489600/1694044800

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9502013070

Sale #2

Transferred with a bunch of items for something? Untraceable-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199120664696#!/compare/1673913600/1690070400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140316312#!/compare/1690502400/1690588800

Sale #3

Untraceable?-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140316312#!/compare/1690934400/1691020800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045293487#!/compare/1686700800/1693872000

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/9402373546

Sale #4

Sold for 24 keys (ID "13556583429" of the unusual matches)-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090078603#!/compare/1695254400/1696377600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062503031#!/compare/1694649600/1696291200

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/9369473994

Sale #5

Untraceable?-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198333873398#!/compare/1672704000/1697414400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199526851168#!/compare/1697500800/1697587200

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/9325208073

Sale #6

Traded for a Gourdian Angel A Handsome Handy Thing? This is probably incomplete given that the Handy Thing is worth max 9 keys which is below buyers at 17 for the Helm-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1695081600/1695254400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078456508#!/compare/1694995200/1695254400

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/9323433187

Sale #7

Sold for a Sakura Smoke Bomb Airdog (given that the price for the Airdog would be 17.5 which is .5 above buyers I'm more inclined to exclude this from both)-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078807914#!/compare/1690675200/1692230400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199087630611#!/compare/1690848000/1691107200

Sale #8

Sold for 21 keys (ID "13359769959" of the unusual matches)-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199087630611#!/compare/1691107200/1691539200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026105896#!/compare/1651795200/1693785600

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/9311574851

Sale #9

Untraceable-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026659536#!/compare/1689811200/1690502400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199245733895#!/compare/1691712000/1692144000

Sale #10

Untraceable-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199245733895#!/compare/1692316800/1692403200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309709356#!/compare/1692144000/1692576000

Sale #11

Sold for 23 keys-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309709356#!/compare/1695081600/1695168000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065206206#!/compare/1695168000/1695254400

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/9291392669

Sale #12

ID "13325847653" of the unusual traces to 12 keys, given that this is way below buyers I'll call this incomplete-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054945991#!/compare/1690675200/1690934400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039595893#!/compare/1690675200/1691107200

Item 9

https://backpack.tf/item/9289899280

Sale #13

Untraceable?-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1697414400/1697500800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199527348562#!/compare/1697500800/1697587200

Marketplace.tf Sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31128;5;u163

MP.TF Sale #1

Sold for $59.99 on August 7, 2023

Average Key Price @ $2ish

59.99/2 = 29.99ish keys

Unknown History

MP.TF Sale #2

Sold for $59.99 on August 19, 2023

Average Key Price @ $2.01ish

59.99/2.01 = 29.84ish keys

Unknown History

MP.TF Sale #3

Sold for $59.99 on August 24, 2023

Average Key Price @ $1.99ish

59.99/1.99 = 30.14ish keys

Unknown History

Sales @ 17.5, 21, 23, 24, 30, 30, 30

Excluding 17.5 for the reason stated above in its sale

Taking 21-30 here

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Sales @ 15, 20, 22

Should be fine to exclude 22 seems there has been a guy slowly lowering their prices down to 20 for the past month and given current sellers as well

https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Sakura+Smoke+Bomb+Airdog&at=2023-09-30T19%3A24%3A00.000Z

Taking 15-20 here