Using last 2 months.

Sale 1:

Sold for 12 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199523473683#!/compare/1701388800/1701475200 - Near ID: 13860203103

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084024877#!/compare/1701475200/1701734400

https://backpack.tf/item/9080273266

= 12 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 10 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1700956800/1701043200 - Near ID: 13843094093

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198296615562#!/compare/1701043200/1701129600

https://backpack.tf/item/3344145680

= 10 keys

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 10 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099521803#!/compare/1702598400/1702684800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1702598400/1702684800

https://backpack.tf/item/13825758368

= 10 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 9 keys + 48.22 ref (rounds to 10)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139085248#!/compare/1701907200/1701993600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209769009#!/compare/1701820800/1701907200

https://backpack.tf/item/3040781348

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Rock,%20Paper,%20Scissors&at=2023-12-08T08:49:27.262Z - gladiator confirms

= 10 keys

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 9 keys + 43.77 ref (barely rounds to 9.5)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084162984#!/compare/1658016000/1702512000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132627345#!/compare/1702425600/1702512000

https://backpack.tf/item/5644545182

= 9.5 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052722438#!/compare/1701648000/1702339200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132627345#!/compare/1701993600/1702080000

https://backpack.tf/item/13825758368

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132627345#!/compare/1702166400/1702252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099521803#!/compare/1702252800/1702339200

https://backpack.tf/item/13825758368

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127363266#!/compare/1701302400/1701561600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999873164#!/compare/1701475200/1701561600

https://backpack.tf/item/13775146883

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199219904980#!/compare/1699228800/1699315200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148861712#!/compare/1698364800/1699488000

https://backpack.tf/item/13174455580

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1698969600/1699056000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199117885194#!/compare/1698537600/1699056000

https://backpack.tf/item/12838120446

Untraceable

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1699920000/1700006400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199119484218#!/compare/1699920000/1700006400

https://backpack.tf/item/12621440408

Untraceable. 4 keys match on the seller's end, and more appear on the buyer's end. However, some went towards a different hat the seller owned in a separate trade. Through manually counting, I found only 7 keys that matched IDs with the taunt, which obviously isn't enough.

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199119484218#!/compare/1703116800/1703289600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198328282971#!/compare/1703030400/1703289600

https://backpack.tf/item/12621440408

Bulk for keys.

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199480918796#!/compare/1700956800/1703116800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1702598400/1702684800

https://backpack.tf/item/11108353887

Bulk for smoking Reel Fly Hat

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099521803#!/compare/1700697600/1700784000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199560109448#!/compare/1701129600/1701302400

https://backpack.tf/item/6750191656

SCM. Too many sales on the SCM at the time to tell what this sold for.

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1703030400/1703116800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1702944000/1703030400

https://backpack.tf/item/6750191656

Untraceable. Gambled between #9 and #10.

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043082169#!/compare/1701129600/1703721600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085068786#!/compare/1698969600/1703894400

https://backpack.tf/item/5068395088

Untraceable.

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199114841575#!/compare/1702252800/1703203200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054270952#!/compare/1702166400/1702252800

https://backpack.tf/item/3292071014

Untraceable, probably gambled as it was prior.

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054270952#!/compare/1702166400/1702252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1702166400/1702252800

https://backpack.tf/item/3292071014

Untraceable, only some metal matches on the seller's end.

#14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014060803#!/compare/1701129600/1701388800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1701216000/1701302400

https://backpack.tf/item/3040781348

Bulk to scrap.tf. Later sold on scrap to someone that dumped on a bot before being scanned in their inventory.

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Rock,%20Paper,%20Scissors&at=2023-11-31T08:49:27.262Z - labelled as 9 keys + 10.11 ref (rounds to 9)

https://backpack.tf/item/12852379153 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/5160441337 - wasn't unusual at time of trades.

https://backpack.tf/item/4218017168 - gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/2717343325 - gambled

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1110;5;u3003

$19.99, November 9th

$23.99, December 7th

$23.99, December 15th

$23.99, December 26th (2x)

Unconfirmed gladiator.tf sales:

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Rock,%20Paper,%20Scissors&at=2023-12-17T08:49:27.262Z - December 17th

9 keys + 44 ref (~9.5 keys)

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Rock,%20Paper,%20Scissors&at=2023-12-15T08:49:27.262Z - December 15th

9 keys + 43.77 ref (~9.5 keys)

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Rock,%20Paper,%20Scissors&at=2023-12-09T08:49:27.262Z - December 9th

9 keys + 31.77 ref (~9.5 keys)

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Rock,%20Paper,%20Scissors&at=2023-11-31T08:49:27.262Z - November 31st

9 keys + 10.11 ref (~9 keys). This is listed in #14.

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Rock,%20Paper,%20Scissors&at=2023-11-28T08:49:27.262Z - November 28th

9 keys + 10.11 ref (~9 keys)

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Rock,%20Paper,%20Scissors&at=2023-11-16T08:49:27.262Z - November 16th

9 keys + 5.88 ref (~9 keys)

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Rock,%20Paper,%20Scissors&at=2023-11-09T08:49:27.262Z - November 9th

9 keys + 0.11 ref (~9 keys)

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Rock,%20Paper,%20Scissors&at=2023-11-08T08:49:27.262Z - November 8th

10 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - Keys were:

$1.74, November 9th

$1.74, December 7th

$1.73, December 15th

$1.72, December 26th

19.99/1.74 = ~11.4, rounds to 11

23.99/1.74 = ~13.8, rounds to 14

23.99/1.73 = ~13.9, rounds to 14

23.99/1.72 = ~13.9, rounds to 14 (2x)

Sellers/Buyers:

https://imgur.com/a/18IONPl

https://backpack.tf/item/6587980934 - ~9.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11108353887 - ~9.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13775146883 - ~9.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4409865138 - 12 keys

Buyers at ~8.75 keys.

Sales at:

9.5

10 (3x)

11 (marketplace)

12

14 (4x, all marketplace)

Plus, the unconfirmed gladiator sales at:

9 (4x)

9.5 (3x)

10

The sales at 9 may be unconfirmed, but we have such an abundance of them, we should not be excluding them. Keeping 9 in the range.

With 3 sellers at ~9.75 keys, we absolutely should not be including the marketplace sales at 11 and 14.

This also excludes the pure sale at 12 keys. However, on top of the 3 sellers for much lower, there's also currently a 2 month old seller at 12, which further supports the exclusion of 12.

Taking 9-10.