Suggestion: Spellbound Hustler's Hallmark at 2150 keys

I made this suggestion with a new formatting tool and copy and pasted alot of it over, so let me know if any links are wrong/connected to the wrong trade

W purchase, congrats for both fellas

Sorry to say but this might need to be resuggested at 2100 flat since I had to resuggest the Lucky Shot at 375, making it be 2117 for this sale if everything else is still fine and if my suggestion goes thru that is https://backpack.tf/suggestion/65d01d9ddf3392f5b4036a3b

do you even trying to selling noh? you just wrote noh is 875keys around i just offer 985keys and this is lowballing

what do you mean

I agree, the main issue with this suggestion is the lack of a Noh Mercy mini. One thing that could make this not matter is if the sale should be capped at a lower buyout - assuming you had it listed for sale, what was your buyout when selling the Hallmark?

So the main issue here is lack of good minis. The biggest one is the Noh, which has no usable sales. The second is that the arcana bicorne mini is likely a high outlier, you shouldn't be capping the sale at sellers - a 700 seller for 8 months (4 when you made this) is telling that the sale is an outlier.

There's a new bicorne sale here, Clean Hearts Bonk + 80 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058056068#!/compare/1707091200/1707177600

Also a new lid sale that should be considered: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1704326400/1704412800

D@D HKC (needs mini)

Getting back to the Noh, while outdated even when you made this, this sale from August might be the best way to get a accurate value for the Noh

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251704884#!/compare/1691625600/1691971200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119500025#!/compare/1691798400/1691884800

Unfortunately it is untracable, it appears to be a cash sale. I would ask George / Jrdn for a screenshot if this is indeed a sale, as it would likely be more accurate than taking buyers.

There is one possibility where the bad mini's might not matter. That is the case where the Hallmark seller had a lower buyout that the sale would be capped at. I responded to the seller's comment in this suggestion asking for that info, hopefully we can get a buyout confirmation which could save us some work.

If we cannot get a valid Noh sale and we can't cap the sale at a lower buyout, I would want to consult with the other mods before making a decision, but I think there's still a pretty good chance we can get this updated.

george/jrdn was mannco, still want me to find it?

Ehh unfortunately that won't work. I'll get back to you on whether we are willing to take buyers for the Noh mini.

For now, can you look into mini'ing the D@D HKC? I also realized the Clean Hearts Bonk has no mini so that doesn't really help here

As of current, there are no recent sales for non-duped Death at Dusk HKCs. Here are the duped sales:

Sold for Galactic Codex Captain Space Mann (needs mini) + 200 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140559064#!/compare/1711670400/1711756800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198808344054#!/compare/1711670400/1711756800

https://backpack.tf/item/3521089734

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316071886#!/compare/1712534400/1712620800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1712534400/1712620800

https://backpack.tf/item/10402103810

Bulk-ish for keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062290614#!/compare/1709942400/1710115200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199190065455#!/compare/1709942400/1710028800

https://backpack.tf/item/3521089734

Untraceable, most likely sold for a bunch of keys that appear on the buyer’s end, but can’t confirm.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199096287078#!/compare/1705276800/1710633600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140559064#!/compare/1710547200/1710633600

https://backpack.tf/item/3521089734

Looks like a backpack buy for keys

Here are some outdated clean sales that occurred around the time the Lid sale occurred:

Sold for 741 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199275811882#!/compare/1704931200/1705017600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198328282971#!/compare/1704931200/1705017600

https://backpack.tf/item/13710352144

Sold for Pro. KS Aus Scattergun (78) + 560 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066271242#!/compare/1705363200/1706054400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198411347037#!/compare/1705968000/1706313600

https://backpack.tf/item/3382539338

= 638

Scattergun re-sold for 78 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066271242#!/compare/1706227200/1706313600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418937523#!/compare/1706227200/1706313600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1704412800/1704499200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199275811882#!/compare/1704153600/1704499200

https://backpack.tf/item/13710352144

Sold with a Burning HKC for Death at Dusk Tossle Cap + 50 keys, apparently. More must’ve been involved.

I've briefly looked into the Space Mann, and there are a lot of minis required to update it, though most of the sales I've seen look like they're gonna go well above sellers without a B/O cap. We could either take the non-duped sales that occurred closer to the time of the Lid sale, and value the HKC at at 640-740, or include the more recent duped sale which may end up being at least 800 keys, giving the Cone a bit of a larger range. Either way, it's going to lower the value of the Lid here.

For the first Bicorne sale (for the Hazmattenhatten), the Hazmattenhatten has a suggestion up at 666. The sale in that suggestion happened well after the Hazmatten - Bicorne sale, but it's a tradeback. 4 months happened between the tradeback sales, so I wouldn't say either is invalid. If the Hazmattenhatten were considered 666 assuming Rainbow Swag valued it at that when they traded it for the Bicorne, that'd make the Bicorne sale ~830. Pyro, the current Bicorne seller at 700, was the seller in the Hazmattenhatten sale. I imagine their buyout was the same then / not lower (the current listing has been up for 9 months), so that'd cap at 700 for the Bicorne.

The second Hazmattenhatten sale listed in the Hallmark's suggestion (for the Robo Glove + stuff) is ~560 + the Strontium if we use the open Feathered suggestion at 97 and the recent Air Strike sale at $80 on Marketplace. That'd still get capped at 700 if we ignored the hypothetical 666 valuation for the Hazmattenhatten.

30 Keys were missed in the math for the Bicorne - Field Practice sale that was actually used in the Hallmark suggestion (the Keys can be seen in the Field Practice seller's compare), so that'd be 727 for the Bicorne. I'm personally fine taking the Bicorne as 700 flat from the Hazmattenhatten sale with how long Pyro has been unable to sell their second one at that price, but 700 - 727 wouldn't be a big difference.

The HKC sale for the Space Mann was almost 4 months after the Lid - Hallmark sale and ~3 months after the Lid - HKC sale, so I'd exclude the Space Mann sale from the HKC's price here. 640 - 740 would be fine because the sales at 640 and 740 were both around the same time as the Lid - HKC sale. 690 - 870 would work for the Legendary Lid.

I'm fine taking buyers for the Noh because the raise/update for the Hallmark is obviously needed. The Lucky Shot got updated to 375, so that'd be 785 (Noh) + 780 (Lid) + 375 (Lucky) + Scopers (85) = 2025. I'd round that up to 2050 because of the lack of a proper Noh price.