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mini for Pumpkin Moon Calamitous Cauldron, which is a mini for Cosmic Constellations Oktoberfester, which is a mini for Strange Sunbeams Gauzed Gaze.
5 sales
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31146;5;u10
sold on DEC 22 for 79.99
weekly key average was 1.67
79.99/1.67=44.68, rounding up to 45.
ITEM 1
https://backpack.tf/item/9874789375
sale #1
seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168760012#!/compare/1698019200/1700524800
buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071065153#!/compare/1697932800/1700697600
untrace
sale #2
seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071065153#!/compare/1701648000/1701734400
buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316071886#!/compare/1701648000/1701734400
I asked the buyer, he bought it alongside:
max head - 28 keys
Green Energy Fur-Lined Fighter - instasold it for 50 keys, so I'll take 50 pures in account for this.
for Pumpkin Moon Calamitous Cauldron, mini'd at 100/110.
110 - 50 - 28 = 32
proof: https://imgur.com/a/IaFX731
MINI LINK:
Pumpkin Moon Calamitous Cauldron - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/65996028c9a08d703c06f62c
sale #3
seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316071886#!/compare/1701648000/1701734400
buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1701648000/1701734400
seller's compares show he sold it for 26 keys 29.55 ref. It could be rounded up to 27 since keys were less than 60 refs at the time, but I personally would say it doesn't matter if we round up or down since it clearly is a buyer dump.
sale #4
it doesn't show up on the item's history, but it was bought by Erik for 31 keys pure and then put on marketplace.
https://imgur.com/a/jVPPjCf
ITEM 2
https://backpack.tf/item/12393403837
sale #5
seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199555314126#!/compare/1703980800/1704412800
buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1703894400/1703980800
untrace
sale #6
seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1704240000/1704326400
buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1704240000/1704326400
seller side show only 18 keys 0.22 ref, buyer still had buy order up at 27 keys 1.22 refs while I was checking.
https://imgur.com/a/ZAw8CZ3
5 sales: 27, 27, 31, 32, 45. 27 are buyers dump and as such are discarded, 45 is countered by current seller.
taking 31/32 pures.
Update, ITEM 2 moved twice more.
sale #6
seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1704240000/1704326400
buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1704240000/1704326400
broken compares, they only show 18 keys and 2 scrap
sale #7
seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1704758400/1704844800
buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285347735#!/compare/1704499200/1704844800
sold for 30 keys and 2 keys in sweets, visible in the 40 item lot with paint and hats present on the buyer side as well, which is still in range.
You can't use 32 here. The sale is bulky, which is when an item sells with around the same value for something. ie. If a 49 key hat was sold with 51 keys for a 100 key item, it's too bulky to use on the 49 key hat.
You also can't use sales to price more than 1 item. Luckily that doesn't affect too much, but it's good to note.
31 flat seems fine here.
what about the other 32 sale that happened less than a weeek ago? Wouldn't that suggest that the range is right? I'm genuinely asking for possible next suggestions.
Good to know about the pricing more than 1 item part, I'll keep it in mind for the future, thanks.
Oh you are right. I didn’t see the 30 keys + 2 in sweets sale. This should be good to go then! My apologies