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Sale 1:
Sold for 3 keys + ~0.1 keys in metal
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198421652838#!/compare/1703808000/1704240000 - Near ID: 14003844869
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199038828427#!/compare/1703894400/1704499200
https://backpack.tf/item/8764768007
= 3.1 keys
Sale 2:
Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 47.66 ref (~2.75 keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105071091#!/compare/1703635200/1703894400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125348079#!/compare/1703808000/1703894400
https://backpack.tf/item/7436870685
Buyer's compare is better to look at, seller's has a bunch of other keys and metal from other trades grouped together.
= 2.75 keys
Other Sales:
#1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1701216000/1701302400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154992882#!/compare/1701216000/1704585600
https://backpack.tf/item/13811336035
Something involving a Delightful Star Results are In
Don't know if anything's missing, but I don't really want to use it here without a B/O cap.
#2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199394463680#!/compare/1703462400/1703808000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1703376000/1703462400
https://backpack.tf/item/10205593901
Bulk/untraceable
#3
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1703548800/1703635200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199373684490#!/compare/1703548800/1703635200
https://backpack.tf/item/10205593901
4 keys match, but B/O was ~3.15 keys
https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Second%20Rate%20Sorcery/658b1bf02022b5eae4076c71
https://imgur.com/a/dFTl7f4
Can't really confirm this sale.
#4
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311733458#!/compare/1703116800/1704931200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084104413#!/compare/1669075200/1704844800
https://backpack.tf/item/9076106762
Untraceable
#5
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128141636#!/compare/1703376000/1703462400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105071091#!/compare/1703376000/1703462400
https://backpack.tf/item/7436870685
Bulk backpack buy
#6
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125348079#!/compare/1703894400/1703980800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1703894400/1703980800
https://backpack.tf/item/7436870685
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Second%20Rate%20Sorcery&at=2023-12-31T13:18:26.200Z - labelled as 3 keys
Untraceable. We can clearly see the 3 keys it would've sold for, but we can't verify the buyer. It definitely sold to a gambler and ruined the history.
The rest of the item's history is a gambling mess.
#7
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357377370#!/compare/1702771200/1703808000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199032721186#!/compare/1703376000/1703462400
https://backpack.tf/item/5219459737
Untraceable.
The item was heavily involved in gambling again afterwards.
#8
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094818081#!/compare/1704412800/1704499200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098694108#!/compare/1704240000/1704412800
https://backpack.tf/item/5192792925
Untraceable. Bulk or a bot transfer.
#9
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199224809570#!/compare/1702339200/1702425600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1702252800/1702339200
https://backpack.tf/item/5190056657
#10
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143864870#!/compare/1703289600/1703376000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1703289600/1703376000
https://backpack.tf/item/5190056657
4 keys + a bunch of metal match, but there's no way a bot bought it for that much here.
#11
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1703721600/1703808000 - Near ID: 13980857136
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199050174055#!/compare/1703808000/1703980800
https://backpack.tf/item/5190056657
Untraceable. 4 keys match, but there were sellers for much cheaper at the time, I doubt nothing was added with the taunt. Even if it was 4 keys, the buyer re-sold to a bot a week later.
https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Second%20Rate%20Sorcery/658dc2aeea474df8260226ff
#12
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199050174055#!/compare/1704499200/1704931200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1704412800/1704499200
https://backpack.tf/item/5190056657
Untraceable.
Marketplace Sales:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30816;5;u3003
$7.67, December 23rd
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were 1.67 at the time
7.67/1.67 = ~4.59, rounds to 4.6
Sellers:
https://imgur.com/a/aq5ZfXB
https://backpack.tf/item/5190056657 ~4.45 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5187502585 - 11 keys
Sales at:
2.75
3.1
4.6 (marketplace)
2.75 is too low now with buyers nearly at 3 keys. Excluding 2.75.
There's currently not much to exclude 4.6, and there were potentially higher sales that occurred that I couldn't confirm. Additionally, the buyers are .1 off of the only pure sale we have here now. Might not be long before they match the sale.
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Second%20Rate%20Sorcery&at=2023-12-04T13:48:51.025Z - sale at ~3.6 keys near the start of December. Supports the inclusion of 4.6.
Taking 3.1-4.6.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199373684490#!/compare/1704931200/1705276800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1705017600/1705104000
https://backpack.tf/item/10205593901
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/item/7436870685 - gambled
https://backpack.tf/item/7190327060 - gambled
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198395914682#!/compare/1705881600/1705968000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139085248#!/compare/1705881600/1705968000
https://backpack.tf/item/11112915622
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Second%20Rate%20Sorcery&at=2024-01-24T14:01:06.078Z - labelled as 3 keys + 9.22 ref
Untraceable. 1 key and 1 scrap match.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198324189263 (backpack won't update, no keys in fallback so untraceable anyways)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111292616#!/compare/1705968000/1706054400
https://backpack.tf/item/8382213149
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Second%20Rate%20Sorcery&at=2024-01-24T14:01:06.078Z - labelled as 3 keys + 9.22 ref
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129364163#!/compare/1705968000/1706313600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199107865875#!/compare/1705881600/1705968000
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Second%20Rate%20Sorcery&at=2024-01-23T14:01:06.078Z - labelled as 3 keys + 9.22 ref
https://backpack.tf/item/5219459737
Untraceable, only the scrap matches.
Gambled prior.
https://backpack.tf/item/7190327060 - gambled
Although they're all untraceable, they heavily support the inclusion of ~3.1 keys in the range, despite buyers now climbing higher.
New sellers:
https://imgur.com/a/vtjnKYP
https://backpack.tf/item/10205593901 - ~3.95 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5219459737 - ~3.95 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5190056657 - ~4.45 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/11112915622 - 6 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5187502585 - 11 keys
The 4.6 sale is now going to be an outlier with the new sellers. I'll keep this open, so i can track this easier, in the hopes that one sells while this is up. I'm hoping for a new sale from one of the cheapest sellers.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199518360841#!/compare/1706832000/1706918400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198421652838#!/compare/1706832000/1706918400
https://backpack.tf/item/5661361092
Untraceable
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020364881#!/compare/1706832000/1706918400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1706745600/1706832000
https://backpack.tf/item/5191269174
Bulk for Acidic Climate Thunder Dome
New sellers:
https://imgur.com/a/Oej4Y6b
https://backpack.tf/item/7436870685 - ~3.5 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/10205593901 - ~3.7 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5219459737 - ~3.7 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5661361092 - ~3.95 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5191269174 - 4 keys/marketplace
https://backpack.tf/item/11112915622 - 6 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5187502585 - 11 keys
https://backpack.tf/item/5190056657 - ~4.5 keys
no new developments since the last comment, just gonna close this, not worth keeping it up. will try come back to it once new sales occur.