Candy cane hat.

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Item History 1: https://backpack.tf/item/2995631844

Sale 1:

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131911699#!/compare/1702857600/1703116800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113190503#!/compare/1703030400/1703116800

Aurora Australis Taunt: The Balloonibouncer + Disco Beat Down Dr's Dapper Topper + 8 Keys for Eyes of Molten Hat Outta Hell.

You can't mini the taunt so this sale can't be used.

Sale 2:

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113190503#!/compare/1704499200/1704585600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199207776727#!/compare/1704499200/1704585600

Sale 3:

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199207776727#!/compare/1704585600/1704672000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113190503#!/compare/1704585600/1704672000

Traded back.

Sale 4:

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1706572800/1706659200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198930282709#!/compare/1706572800/1706659200

Trade History: https://imgur.com/a/anxSnca

69 Keys & 19.77 Refs (69.31), rounding to 69.

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Item History 2: https://backpack.tf/item/1853153684

Sale 1:

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1699401600/1699488000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082312578#!/compare/1702598400/1703116800

Erik bought in bulk from STN, then he put them on Marketplace.tf.

Some examples from compares: https://backpack.tf/item/7435281422 - https://backpack.tf/item/13179101469 - https://backpack.tf/item/7957151119

Considering there's an untraceable sale on Marketplace.tf, I believe he sold the hat there to Creamy (December 20th, 2023): https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/252;5;u62

Also, the date gap on Buyer's side fits perfectly with the Marketplace sale mentioned above.

Keys sold at $1.7 that day: https://imgur.com/a/gxt3AzK

179.99 / 1.7 = ~105.87 Keys

Rounding to 106, which is too high considering seller at 80 right now so this sale can't be used.

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Item History 3: https://backpack.tf/item/1854424632

Sale 1:

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030002462#!/compare/1704585600/1705449600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030002462#!/compare/1704585600/1705449600

68 Keys flat.

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1 Sale @68

1 Sale @69

Current Listings: https://imgur.com/a/r76DJrP

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Taking 68-69 range. ᗜˬᗜ