Re-suggesting, revising the range.

Sale 1:

Sold with negligible metal for 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1706140800/1706227200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138707710#!/compare/1706227200/1706313600

https://backpack.tf/item/6258519528

= 4 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999873164#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136744617#!/compare/1706486400/1706659200

https://backpack.tf/item/6904776694

= 3 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 2 keys + 30 ref (~0.45 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198993596887#!/compare/1706313600/1706400000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999873164#!/compare/1706313600/1706400000

https://backpack.tf/item/6904776694

= 2.45 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199446524295#!/compare/1703289600/1703376000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1703289600/1703376000

https://backpack.tf/item/13824041459

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1705363200/1705449600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120107112#!/compare/1702684800/1705449600

https://backpack.tf/item/13824041459

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138707710#!/compare/1705968000/1706054400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983856237#!/compare/1705968000/1706054400

https://backpack.tf/item/11926459734

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890409949#!/compare/1701993600/1702252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132627345#!/compare/1702166400/1702252800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Russian%20Arms%20Race&at=2023-12-12T09:36:36.426Z - labelled as 2 keys + 23.88 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/11010085663

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198166495399#!/compare/1705276800/1706832000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Russian%20Arms%20Race&at=2024-02-02T09:37:39.796Z - labelled as 2 keys + 30.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/10682764863

Untraceable, 29 ref matches.

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306329136#!/compare/1705708800/1706140800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1705968000/1706054400

https://backpack.tf/item/10327590691

Bulk for keys

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377006264#!/compare/1705795200/1705968000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1705881600/1705968000

https://backpack.tf/item/6258519528

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/12491752339 - gambled or otherwise unusable

https://backpack.tf/item/6994896368 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/6478572246 - gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/6259959989 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12081632852 - gambled/scammer sales

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30843;5;u3003

$7.99, December 9th, December 29th, Jan 11th, Jan 15th, Jan 19th, and Jan 22nd

These sales end up being around ~4.5 keys, which is quite a bit higher than what this item has been selling for in keys. Should be fine to exclude them.

Unconfirmed Gladiator Sales:

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Russian%20Arms%20Race&at=2024-02-02T09:37:39.796Z - ~Feb 2nd

2 keys + 30.66 ref (~2.5 keys), seen in #5

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Russian%20Arms%20Race&at=2023-12-24T09:37:39.796Z - ~December 24th

2 keys + 22.44 ref (~2.35 keys)

https://backpack.tf/item/12081632852 - may have involved a scammer

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Russian%20Arms%20Race&at=2023-12-12T09:37:39.796Z - ~December 12th

2 keys + 23.88 ref (~2.35 keys), seen in #4

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Russian%20Arms%20Race&at=2023-12-06T09:37:39.796Z - ~December 6th

3 keys + 3 ref (~3.05 keys)

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/vAGTCS8

https://backpack.tf/item/6252914249 - ~3.15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/10037654093 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/10327590691 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12081632852 - marketplace

https://imgur.com/a/sLcsx0x

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Holy+Grail+Taunt%3A+The+Russian+Arms+Race - 2 keys + ~50 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/12491752339

Sales at:

2.45

3

4

Lots of support for a low end of ~2.45 keys, with the gladiator purchases around that price.

Originally kept 4 in the range with support from the marketplace sales, the seller on the classifieds at ~3.15 being my only counter. However, with the seller still there, and since discovering there's another on stn for ~2.8 keys, I figured it would be best to drop 4 from the range.

Taking 2.45-3 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136744617#!/compare/1707091200/1707782400 - Near ID: 14164645964 (mixed with at least 1 other trade)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099031605#!/compare/1707696000/1707782400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Russian%20Arms%20Race&at=2024-02-14T15:23:02.554Z - labelled as 2 keys + 15.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/6904776694

Looks plausible. Didn't check the histories of the items on the buyer's end, but I'm fairly certain we'll see the right amount of metal there.

Don't think it's worth including 2.25 keys in the range, at least not yet.