Smoking that DMT Cigar

Item 1:

https://backpack.tf/item/10394715041

Ignoring assumed gambling (Movement from 11/14/23 to 11/17/23)

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198821356886#!/compare/1706659200/1706832000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193412191#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

1:1 for a North Star Clue Hairdo.

The Clue Hairdo is unpriced, so can use this sale there.

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193412191#!/compare/1704412800/1704499200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054270952#!/compare/1704412800/1704499200

Sold for 58 keys.

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054270952#!/compare/1701302400/1701388800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287942889#!/compare/1701216000/1701302400

Cashout.

Unusable.

Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287942889#!/compare/1700352000/1700438400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1700352000/1700438400

Sold with a Strange Festivized Professional Killstreak Rocket Launcher (28) for a Prismatica Breach and Bomb.

The Breach and Bomb is outdated and this sale can be used there.

Item 2:

https://backpack.tf/item/9847058929

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097499917#!/compare/1700697600/1703376000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193412191#!/compare/1701302400/1701388800

Sold for 51.5 keys, rounds to 52.

Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097499917#!/compare/1705363200/1705449600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199103991885#!/compare/1705363200/1705449600

I cannot track any histories here. Let me know if you see something that I missed.

Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199103991885#!/compare/1705363200/1705449600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108134313#!/compare/1705363200/1705449600

Same as above - just unsure. Maybe a quicksell as the hat moved twice in one day?

Item 3:

https://backpack.tf/item/9505187972

Only 1 instance of movement in the past three months, which appears to be a Mannco.store sale. Ignoring this item.

Item 4:

https://backpack.tf/item/9177494126

Same as Item 3 - only 1 instance of movement in the past three months, which appears to be a Mannco.store sale. Ignoring this item.

Item 5:

https://backpack.tf/item/9173136791

Looks like an item that was impacted by the Mannco.store hack - only one instance of movement which was the hat being traded to a bot. Nothing usable here so moving on.

Item 6:

https://backpack.tf/item/9172222168

Same as Items 3 & 4 - only 1 instance of movement in the past three months, which appears to be a Mannco.store sale. Ignoring this item.

Item 7:

https://backpack.tf/item/9146138658

Ignoring movement between alt accounts (Merendas)

Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129514379#!/compare/1706659200/1707004800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1706918400/1707004800

Added 7 keys for a Tesla Coil Executioner (89) = 82 keys

Sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097499917#!/compare/1706054400/1706140800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192088525#!/compare/1706054400/1706140800

Sold for 60 keys.

Item does not appear in the second link because Merendas sent it to his alt the same day.

Sale 10:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097499917#!/compare/1701216000/1701388800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1701302400/1701388800

Sold for 55 keys.

Item 8:

https://backpack.tf/item/9144515897

Sale 11:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084855753#!/compare/1705449600/1706313600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199107627144#!/compare/1705449600/1705536000

Cashout, unusable.

Sale 12:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199107627144#!/compare/1706313600/1706400000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198231530440#!/compare/1707264000/1707350400

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31106;5;u155

Sold for $129.99 on Marketplace.tf on 2/07/2024.

Key price was $1.7 on that date, see below.

129.99/1.7 = 76.46, ~76 keys.

Other Marketplace.tf Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31106;5;u155 - hat

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - key prices

-01/18/24: $139.99/1.69 = 82.83, ~83 keys.

-12/31/23: $139.99/1.74 = 80.45, ~80 keys.

Conclusion:

-Sales @ 52 55, 58, 60, 76, 80, 82, and 83.

Classifieds

https://imgur.com/a/yqWYoOe

https://imgur.com/a/nbVrWgg

-Several buy-orders at-or-above the 60 key mark, many of which have existed for weeks/months, which supports the raise.

-The sales at 52, 55, 58, and 60 all fall under current buy-orders.

-It is worth noting that the sales at 52 and 55 are also the oldest.

-Finally, the Marketplace.tf seller @ $129.99 in the above Imgur link does not exist anymore. Its sale is represented by "Sale 12" above. It sold in under a week and there are currently zero sellers for this effects on both Classifieds and on Marketplace.tf.

Rolling with 76-83 for now. All sales at lower prices fall under old buy-orders, and there are currently zero sellers on the market to cap the high-end of the range.