Included sales over 2 months old due to lack of recent sales.

Sale 1:

Sold for 16 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1705536000/1705622400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259528152#!/compare/1705536000/1705622400

https://backpack.tf/item/8818140440

= 16 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 13 keys + 10 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198421652838#!/compare/1701648000/1701734400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168578115#!/compare/1701561600/1701734400

https://backpack.tf/item/4445283417

= 13 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1702512000/1702771200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143754704#!/compare/1687392000/1704240000

https://backpack.tf/item/13824899145

Untraceable, probably marketplace

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199245733895#!/compare/1703203200/1703289600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1703203200/1703289600

https://backpack.tf/item/8818140440

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1703203200/1703289600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199134289408#!/compare/1701820800/1703289600

https://backpack.tf/item/8818140440

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199134289408#!/compare/1703894400/1704326400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1704153600/1704240000

https://backpack.tf/item/8818140440

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168578115#!/compare/1703548800/1703635200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1703548800/1703635200

https://backpack.tf/item/4445283417

Untraceable, 10 keys + some metal match

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198798979302#!/compare/1704067200/1705104000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1705017600/1705104000

https://backpack.tf/item/4418947280

Untraceable, some metal matches

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1699833600/1699920000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199112747154#!/compare/1698969600/1699920000

https://backpack.tf/item/12831964968

Untraceable, only 13 keys match

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199112747154#!/compare/1700006400/1701561600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1700179200/1700265600

https://backpack.tf/item/12831964968

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1700870400/1700956800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325144630#!/compare/1700870400/1700956800

https://backpack.tf/item/12831964968

Untraceable, some keys and killstreak kits match.

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197998455216#!/compare/1700611200/1700697600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049096040#!/compare/1700524800/1700611200

https://backpack.tf/item/12134723593

Untraceable, but almost certainly sold for 13 keys (buyer's end)

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199112522018#!/compare/1700352000/1700438400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111292616#!/compare/1700352000/1700438400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20Mannrobics&at=2023-11-21T02:41:37.881Z - labelled as 12 keys + 20.11 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/9149300341

Untraceable

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251704884#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400

https://backpack.tf/item/4675536026

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/11055731680 - no known prior owner

https://backpack.tf/item/5837702923 - mannco

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1162;5;u3006

$29.89, December 25th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Keys were $1.64, but this was during christmas, where keys were much cheaper. Using an average of the key prices from surrounding days.

December 22nd -> December 28th

$1.67, $1.67, $1.64, $1.64, $1.72, $1.70, $1.68

Averages to ~$1.67

29.89/1.67 = ~17.9, rounding to 18 keys

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/5JsKI32

https://backpack.tf/item/4445283417 - 17 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4418947280 - ~17.2 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4837417577 - marketplace

The 20 key seller doesn't own the item anymore.

Sales at:

13

16

18 (marketplace)

Any sales at 13 (including gladiator ones) appear to have been quite a while ago, before buyers were as high as they are now. The market has shifted, should be fine to exclude 13.

2 sellers at 17 keys, the marketplace sale is gonna be too high. Excluding 17.

Taking 16 flat.