https://backpack.tf/item/12179086367

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1700524800/1700611200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210809452#!/compare/1699833600/1701043200

https://backpack.tf/item/12196044028

4 keys 1 ref:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199156814556#!/compare/1704844800/1705017600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199380742406#!/compare/1704931200/1705017600

Rounding to 4 keys

Dumped to STN the same day for 4 keys and 25.44 ref:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199380742406#!/compare/1704931200/1705017600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1704931200/1705017600

Rounding to 4.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11780112615

Looks like a backpack buy:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123530436#!/compare/1704412800/1705881600

Buyer then listed it on MPTF for $20 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30816;5;u3088

https://backpack.tf/item/5319084246

Bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085308746#!/compare/1700092800/1700179200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099521803#!/compare/1700092800/1700179200

Buyer listed it on Mannco.Store

https://backpack.tf/item/5185307322

First sale is a bot owner to bot transfer

5 keys 30 ref:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199197624825#!/compare/1702771200/1702857600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141493550#!/compare/1701388800/1702857600

Rounding to 5.5 keys

Sales at 4, 4.5, 5.5.

Buyers at 4.25 keys make 4 look low, gonna keep 4.5 in the range however despite the fact it was a dump since it's still a common trading point and the sale at 4 supports including it in the range.

Going with 4.5-5.5 keys

2 keys match:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1705881600/1705968000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068535542#!/compare/1700956800/1705968000

https://backpack.tf/item/11153679461 listed on MPTF