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https://backpack.tf/item/3534906297
12 keys (near ID doesn't work since the buyer applied a paint):
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1701734400/1701820800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116110446#!/compare/1701734400/1701820800
Seller at 12.9 keys for 2 months supports a drop https://backpack.tf/item/11207040203
https://scrap.tf/item/Orbiting-Fire-Sammy-Cap
The b/o on scrap.tf suggests this was closer to ~13 keys.
The ref leaving on buyer side seems to trace to nearly this amt as well
you're right, I'll resuggest this. Thanks