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Resuggestion to include a new sale as the high end
https://backpack.tf/item/349825400
https://backpack.tf/item/275962697
Excluding Mannco.Store sales
https://backpack.tf/item/257227643 Duped, both people in the history still own it
https://backpack.tf/item/277396038
1603 keys appear on buyer's side:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997127387#!/compare/1705795200/1705881600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261265788#!/compare/1705795200/1705881600
https://backpack.tf/item/3003327403 Duped, didn't move
https://backpack.tf/item/4013958412
Bulk:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060574588#!/compare/1701302400/1701388800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063925137#!/compare/1701302400/1701388800
1075 keys + Bayonet Fade Knife:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063925137#!/compare/1702771200/1702857600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098125861#!/compare/1702771200/1702857600
(credit to Knopast for the screenshot) https://imgur.com/a/1B3bhnv
--
https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/730/★%20Bayonet%20%7C%20Fade%20(Factory%20New)
Taking past week around when the sale happened (December 17)
December 12: $1210.97/2.3=526,51 ~527 keys
December 15: $1124.53/2.16=520,62 ~521 keys
December 16: $1130/2.09=540,67 ~541 keys
Average price: (527+521+541)/3=529,66 ~530 keys
key prices: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key
$2.3, $2.16 and $2.09 respectively
So that makes the sale 1075+530=1605 keys, rounding to 1600
https://backpack.tf/item/281112117 (Spelled)
Green Energy Soldier's Slope Scopers + Demonflame Bonk Helm + Green Black Hole Flamboyant Flamenco + Burning Flames Lucky Shot:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119500025#!/compare/1701216000/1701388800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063925137#!/compare/1701302400/1701388800
--
Scopers: 85 keys https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6575fc792aefb4c40d0db0b3
Bonk Helm: buyers at ~500 keys
Flamboyant Flamenco: 620 keys https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6590a71f7c90940fce0efaad
Lucky Shot: 390 keys https://backpack.tf/suggestion/65763900b2d9433d9b05c40a
Taking buyers on the Bonk Helm already makes this sale ~1600 so with a proper value on the Bonk Helm it will be higher than the non-spelled sales, excluding
835 keys Sunbeams Noble Assessment of Hats + Strange Kritzkrieg + Construction PDA + 20 Max's Heads
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063925137#!/compare/1706572800/1706659200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198328282971#!/compare/1706572800/1706659200
--
Noble Assessment of Hats: buyer at 38, should be enough
Kritzrieg: 90-100 I guess (mean of 95) https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Strange%20Kritzkrieg&at=2024-01-30T23:22:04.205Z
PDA: 102-204 (mean of 103) https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Strange%20Construction%20PDA&at=2024-01-30T23:23:14.880Z
Max's Head: 29 as a mid-point should be fine (580 keys in total) https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Max%27s%20Severed%20Head&at=2024-01-30T23:24:16.013Z
835+38+95+103+580=1651 keys, rounding to 1650
https://backpack.tf/item/357747797
Ignoring all the tradebacks, it's most likely gambling
Galactic Gateway Brain-Warming Wear + Cloudy Moon Pirate Bandana + Steaming Master's Yellow Belt + 284 keys:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139394142#!/compare/1704758400/1704844800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118157202#!/compare/1704758400/1704844800
Looks incredibly low at a glance, more must have been involved
looks like 1530 keys (buyer's compare):
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118157202#!/compare/1704758400/1704844800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799601783#!/compare/1704758400/1704844800
sold within a day
1575 keys:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799601783#!/compare/1704758400/1704844800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055618880#!/compare/1704758400/1704844800
https://backpack.tf/item/957689489 Just tradebacks
https://backpack.tf/item/203518545
Added 150 keys for Acidic Climate Starboard Crusader:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982127154#!/compare/1701561600/1701648000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198822773578#!/compare/1701475200/1701648000
Better used on the Crusader
Sold alongside Miami Nights Whirly Warrior, Haunted Kraken Sky High Fly Guy, Eerie Kraken Cranial Cowl, Selfless Sensation Taunt: The Bunnyhopper and 7 Festivizers for the Green Black Hole Exquisite Rack:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198822773578#!/compare/1702857600/1702944000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113190503#!/compare/1702857600/1702944000
Better used on the Green Black Hole Rack
Bulk:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113190503#!/compare/1703203200/1703289600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1703203200/1703289600
Sold alongside The Ooze Nuke, Searing Plasma Waxy Wayfinder and Spelled Snow Scoper for the Strange Roboactive Villain's Veil:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218497692#!/compare/1703289600/1703376000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310972287#!/compare/1703203200/1703376000
Better used on the Veil
Sold alongside Time Warp Soldered Sensei for 1455 keys + Hellfire Flipped Trilby:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310972287#!/compare/1704153600/1704240000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198860735519#!/compare/1704067200/1704240000
Should fall in-range
Sunbeams Exquisite Rack + Aces High Legendary Lid + 325 keys:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198860735519#!/compare/1706572800/1706659200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198402479834#!/compare/1706572800/1706659200
--
Lid doesn't have any usable sales https://pastebin.com/iKdp5wBV
Using buyers at ~123 keys https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Legendary%20Lid/Tradable/Craftable/59
Sunbeams Rack: 1400 keys https://backpack.tf/suggestion/65c019b04e47e732320e9040
1400+123=1523 keys, would probably full in-range if the Lid was priced
https://backpack.tf/item/214960246
Strange Sunbeams Bonk Boy + Vivid Plasma Noh Mercy:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994660517#!/compare/1707350400/1707436800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996581311#!/compare/1707350400/1707436800
Better used on the Noh Mercy since it doesn't have anything else usable
Looks like 1680 keys:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996581311#!/compare/1707868800/1707955200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040737975#!/compare/1707955200/1708041600
Rounding to 1700
Sales at 1100 (1075 rounded), (1523 missing the Lid's value), 1550 (1530 rounded), 1600 (1575 rounded), 1600 (1603 rounded), 1600 (1605 rounded), 1650, 1700
1100 is below buyers at ~1400 so excluding.
Gonna take 1550-1700 keys
Buy order for normal (non spelled) at 1550 currently. What happens when buy order is already in the price range suggested?
Since it wasn't there when the original suggestion was made it isn't really counter-evidence alone, but at a push 1550 could possibly be excluded since it sold quicker than the other sales but I decided to keep it in to include more data points, especially since there's already a sale at 1100 that we're excluding and the Sunbeams Rack + Aces High Lid sale supports including 1550 too