Re-suggesting, new range influenced by new sellers. Using sales from the last suggestion onwards.

Sale 1:

Sold for 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1705536000/1705622400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198350267590#!/compare/1705622400/1705881600

https://backpack.tf/item/5037019111

= 7 keys

Sale 2:

Sold with half a key in metal? for 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1703289600/1703376000 - Near ID: 13956256353 (keys only)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078456508#!/compare/1703289600/1703376000

https://backpack.tf/item/13814310816

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Fubar%20Fanfare/6586f7538aef26b56c040b3e

https://imgur.com/a/eCQ2pXK - was listed for ~5.55 keys

We don't see the metal involved in the compares, I had to manually check histories to find some metal.

https://backpack.tf/item/13956256350

https://backpack.tf/item/13956256347

https://backpack.tf/item/13956256346

https://backpack.tf/item/13956256352 - some of the metal involved

Couldn't find all of it, but it should be safe to assume the bot sold it for what it was listed for.

= 5.5 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1702425600/1702512000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377216248#!/compare/1700438400/1703721600

https://backpack.tf/item/13634075356

In my last suggestion, I'd looked at the snapshot of this sale to confirm that it was 4 keys, and found a "B/O" of 3.9 keys. It has since come to my attention that these snapshots share the same inaccuracy of listings that were made before a key price change. With that in mind, I'm more confident that this sale was 4 keys.

= 4 keys

Sale 4:

Sold with 29.55 ref (~0.45 keys) for 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193412191#!/compare/1702339200/1702425600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275691313#!/compare/1702425600/1702512000

https://backpack.tf/item/13953108739

= 3.55 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198981357191#!/compare/1701216000/1701302400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118197152#!/compare/1698019200/1701302400

https://backpack.tf/item/13814310816

Untraceable/bulk

Gambled after.

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198286143400#!/compare/1703203200/1703289600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1703203200/1703289600

https://backpack.tf/item/13814310816

Untraceable.

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1702166400/1702252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171220689

https://backpack.tf/item/12772029362

Untraceable scrap.tf purchase. 3 keys + some metal match, but I'm not confident that was all, especially with the buyer's backpack never being scanned before the sale happened, preventing us from verifying on the buyer's end.

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101398509#!/compare/1699660800/1704758400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132808609#!/compare/1697155200/1699660800

https://backpack.tf/item/4953746966

Backpack buy

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132808609#!/compare/1697155200/1699660800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199279200907#!/compare/1700092800/1702339200

https://backpack.tf/item/4953746966

Untraceable, probably a marketplace sale

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199218956834#!/compare/1700006400/1700524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193412191#!/compare/1700524800/1700611200

https://backpack.tf/item/13953108739

Bulk for Searing Caribou

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275691313#!/compare/1703116800/1703289600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199259032727#!/compare/1697414400/1703289600

https://backpack.tf/item/13953108739

Bulk-ish for Aussie Axtinguisher. Would value the taunt at ~8 keys, and considering it's a non-pure sale and is an outlier, exceeding even the marketplace sales, it's gonna get excluded.

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199259032727#!/compare/1703462400/1703548800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275691313#!/compare/1703462400/1703548800

https://backpack.tf/item/13953108739

Sold for Dead Presidents Bombard Brigadier + ~3 keys in items?

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Fubar%20Fanfare/6586f7538aef26b56c040b3e

https://imgur.com/a/HqqYmZ1 - B/O of ~5.5 keys

Bit of a weird sale, best to exclude it.

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199272133206

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170174819#!/compare/1704844800/1704931200

https://backpack.tf/item/12547726563

Alt transfer or something, nothing useful.

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142034690#!/compare/1706227200/1706745600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198878648487#!/compare/1705708800/1706832000

https://backpack.tf/item/11814382089

Untraceable

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199028548697#!/compare/1706745600/1707609600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1707436800/1707523200

https://backpack.tf/item/5101450237

Bulk for junk?

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261496996#!/compare/1707955200/1708128000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029736015#!/compare/1707955200/1708041600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Fubar%20Fanfare&at=2024-02-16T10:29:44.227Z - labelled as 3 keys + 25.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/9639197837

Untraceable.

https://backpack.tf/item/12772575972 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/8076141819 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/5383201613 - gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/5158832329 - mannco

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30761;5;u3003

$9, November 23rd

$9, November 24th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - Keys were:

$1.71, November 23rd % 24th

9/1.71 = ~5.26, rounds to 5.5 keys

Sellers:

Sales at:

3.55

4

5.5 (3x, 2 marketplace)

7

Sellers at 4 and 5 keys, excluding 5.5+.

3.55 may be a bit low, but there's some support for a price lower than 4 flat here, with #12 and another gladiator purchase at 3 keys + 13.33 ref

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Fubar%20Fanfare&at=2024-02-03T10:42:16.270Z

Taking 3.55-4 keys.

my dumbass forgot to include the sellers

https://imgur.com/a/0qUbWlg

https://backpack.tf/item/5101450237 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9639197837 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11347847334 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6870038468 - ~6.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12432273490 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/13814310816 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199518360841#!/compare/1708992000/1709078400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1708992000/1709078400

https://backpack.tf/item/5375313461

Sold with a Screaming Tiger Drunken Sailor for 5 keys + 56.11 ref, on STN.

This sale occurred about 2 days ago, should be fine to assume STNs current prices are accurate for what they were valued at here.

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Holy+Grail+Taunt%3A+The+Fubar+Fanfare

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Screaming+Tiger+Taunt%3A+The+Drunken+Sailor

https://imgur.com/a/gh7uqGC

2 keys + 30.88 on the Sailor

3 keys + 22.66 ref on the Fubar

Adds up to 5 keys + 53.55 ref. Close enough, going to accept the Fubar's price here.

3 keys + 22.66 ref (~3.35 keys)

Buyers at ~3.45, this sale doesn't affect the price here.