https://backpack.tf/item/9147233240

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1706227200/1706313600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199245733895#!/compare/1706227200/1706313600

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199245733895#!/compare/1706313600/1706400000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1706313600/1706400000

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199077639826#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199077639826#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997138838#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997138838#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400

Bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208582767#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400

Bot dump for ~7 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208582767#!/compare/1706486400/1706572800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108309959#!/compare/1706486400/1706572800

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108309959#!/compare/1706572800/1706659200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086011812#!/compare/1706572800/1706659200

It then appears as sold on MPTF, I'll cover MPTF sales at the end

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170130799#!/compare/1707436800/1707350400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073259054#!/compare/1707436800/1707350400

Dumped to STN, no trace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073259054#!/compare/1707523200/1707436800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1707436800/1707523200

Searing Plasma Rather Festive Tree matches, more was probably involved:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1708041600/1708128000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087806226#!/compare/1707955200/1708214400

8 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087806226#!/compare/1707955200/1708214400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198282873040#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400

https://backpack.tf/item/9161542089

Dumped to STN, no match:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198918194942#!/compare/1703116800/1703203200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1703116800/1703203200

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1705449600/1705536000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199013239107#!/compare/1705449600/1705536000

Dumped to STN again the same day, nothing matches:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199013239107#!/compare/1705449600/1705536000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1705449600/1705536000

Sold alongside a Bolts Elf Esteem for 14 keys and 23.88 ref:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1706832000/1706918400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053277193#!/compare/1706918400/1707004800

--They both have a buyout of around 7.5 keys

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Nuts+n%27+Bolts+Elf+Esteem

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Aces+High+Bazaar+Bauble

However the ref doesn't exactly match and there's no way to tell if the buyout at the time for the Bauble was closer to 7 or 7.5 so I won't use this sale to determine the range but I'll use it as support

https://backpack.tf/item/9165998888

bot dump but untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112323764#!/compare/1678665600/1706400000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1706313600/1706400000

Bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086011812#!/compare/1706400000/1706572800

Next sale appears to be MP, will cover MP sales at the end

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073259054#!/compare/1707436800/1707523200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138042338#!/compare/1706140800/1707523200

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138042338#!/compare/1707523200/1707696000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1707436800/1707523200

Looks like it then sold on CS Deals then instantly got dumped to STN, gonna skip thest 2 sales

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1708214400/1708300800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199033451548#!/compare/1708214400/1708300800

Untrace:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199033451548#!/compare/1708300800/1708473600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199131919546#!/compare/1708300800/1708387200

~~

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31112;5;u59

Feb 9: $14.99/1.707=8,78 ~9 keys (2 sales)

key price https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

(1.7+1.7+1.7+1.7+1.72+1.72+1.71)/7=1.707

~~

So we have usable sales at 7, 8, 9 and 9. We also have a sale that is between 7 and 7.5.

https://backpack.tf/item/9173363611 seller at 8 keys for around a day https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Aces%20High%20Bazaar%20Bauble/65dbd7486dbe8b627e03c166

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Bazaar%20Bauble?filter=+Aces+High Seller at $17.25 (~8 keys takin 2.18 as the key price)

We have 2 sellers at around 8 keys so 9 is probably too high. Buyers are currently at around 7 keys but 2 sales support including it in the range.

Going with 7-8 keys for now but will change the range if the situation changes