Sale 1:

Sold for 12 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198281336665#!/compare/1703808000/1704931200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165960362#!/compare/1703721600/1704067200

https://backpack.tf/item/8368341462

The seller spent keys on the Shining Stag El Fiestibrero before keys were scanned in their backpack. Previous owner on the Stag appear on the buyer's end's keys.

= 12 keys

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 10 keys + more than half a key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050433855#!/compare/1704412800/1704499200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1704412800/1704499200

https://backpack.tf/item/8368341462

= 11 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 11 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198191744974#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316831771#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://backpack.tf/item/7440946125

It's likely some metal was involved. Given current buy orders, it probably wouldn't stray too far from 11.

= 11 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1702684800/1702771200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1702857600/1702944000

https://backpack.tf/item/9292124002

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1705104000/1705190400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017911471#!/compare/1705881600/1705968000

https://backpack.tf/item/9292124002

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017911471#!/compare/1705881600/1705968000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1705881600/1705968000

https://backpack.tf/item/9292124002

Untraceable, probably bulk

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1706140800/1706227200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1706140800/1706227200

https://backpack.tf/item/9292124002

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065879305#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://backpack.tf/item/9292124002

Untraceable

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199097370048#!/compare/1703289600/1703376000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198281336665#!/compare/1703203200/1703376000

https://backpack.tf/item/8368341462

Sold with 2 keys for Pyroland Yule, using on the Yule.

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165960362#!/compare/1704067200/1704240000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244719404#!/compare/1703808000/1704240000

https://backpack.tf/item/8368341462

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244719404#!/compare/1704499200/1704585600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050433855#!/compare/1704499200/1704585600

https://backpack.tf/item/8368341462

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1704931200/1705017600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018885531#!/compare/1704672000/1705017600

https://backpack.tf/item/8368341462

Untraceable, 3 keys match. Gambled afterwards.

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316831771#!/compare/1707955200/1708041600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199245733895#!/compare/1707955200/1708041600

https://backpack.tf/item/7440946125

Untraceable. Gambled afterwards.

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1106;5;u3045

$28.66, Feb 18th.

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - Keys were:

28.66/1.7 = ~16.85, rounds to 17 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7449143854

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/rGjucIp

https://backpack.tf/item/9292124002 - 14 keys

Sales at:

11 (2x)

12

17 (marketplace)

Not too keen on keeping 11 in the range, when buyers are at ~11.3 keys at the moment. Excluding 11.

Seller at 14 keys, excluding 17.

Taking 12 flat.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065879305#!/compare/1709510400/1709683200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1709424000/1709510400

https://backpack.tf/item/9292124002

Untraceable, only the metal matches.

I'm assuming it was 11 keys + the metal, given buy orders at the time:

https://imgur.com/a/rGjucIp

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1709510400/1709596800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1709510400/1709596800

https://backpack.tf/item/9292124002

Untraceable

Re-listed for 13 keys, and buy orders have dropped to 10 keys.

https://imgur.com/a/MszXHxg

https://backpack.tf/item/9292124002