Suggestion: Roboactive Officer's Ushanka at 280–330 keys

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Mini for Bicorne

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/4302357432

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163549413#!/compare/1694044800/1695772800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198184556093#!/compare/1694649600/1695081600

Sold for:

Smoking Le Party Phantom - buyers at 100, gonna find what it sold for and figure out it's value in this trade

100 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163549413#!/compare/1695772800/1696377600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198317744461#!/compare/1694131200/1696377600

Mavric sells for:

Strange Specialized Killstreak Australium Rocket Launcher

Strange Specialized Killstreak Australium Sniper Rifle

55 + 37 = 92 keys via current sell orders, buyers may have risen. I have no idea since snapshots don't got that far and Gladiator's time machine is broken.

Sale 2

Sale above for the Ushanka

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118139655#!/compare/1695254400/1695686400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1695168000/1695254400

Bulky for Strange Ghastly Ghosts Jr Ground Control

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1696636800/1696723200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198350736523#!/compare/1696636800/1696723200

275 match for:

Stormy Storm Blast Defense

Amaranthine Bolted Bicorne

Toxic Terrors Taunt: The Schadenfreude

Some sort of agreed pure sale, untrace without asking either party here, next sale makes it a bit weirder to use because...

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198350736523#!/compare/1700956800/1701216000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1700956800/1701043200

Sold for Death at Dusk Détective Noir back to Lauren

Mini for Death at Dusk Détective Noir

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075894305#!/compare/1700265600/1700438400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139627699#!/compare/1700265600/1700352000

Added:

Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Eyelander

for

Scorching Flames Berlin Brain Bowl

5 keys

Not sure about the Eyelander being included, the history matches but they don't enter at the same time

Sale could well be just the SF Bowl and 5 keys

Maybe one of the guys involved could clarify

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139627699#!/compare/1700352000/1700524800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353460718#!/compare/1700352000/1700438400

Untrace

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353460718#!/compare/1700956800/1701043200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1700956800/1701043200

Untrace

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1700956800/1701043200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198350736523#!/compare/1700956800/1701216000

Amar bicorne

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198350736523#!/compare/1705276800/1705363200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139627699#!/compare/1705276800/1705363200

What a beautiful war paint

Bulk

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139627699#!/compare/1705449600/1705536000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971916953#!/compare/1705449600/1705536000

Bulk for Steaming Noh Mercy

No usable sales outside of the first one where the eyelander may or may not have been involved, honestly better to use the Amar Bicorne here

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1702598400/1702684800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325974441#!/compare/1702598400/1702684800

Sold for:

Blizzardy Storm Bomb Beanie

Smoking Carouser's Capotain

Miami Nights Sultan's Ceremonial

Circling TF Logo Strontium Stove Pipe

Exorcism Vintage Killstreak Huntsman

The Cute Suit #56

159 keys

Looks to be around 200 without doing any further indepth minis?

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325974441#!/compare/1703980800/1704153600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057285337#!/compare/1703894400/1703980800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057285337#!/compare/1704067200/1704153600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325974441#!/compare/1703980800/1704153600

Tradeback

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325974441#!/compare/1704585600/1704758400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1704672000/1704758400

Added:

Circling TF Logo Grimm Hatte - https://prnt.sc/ft_skTZSLqS8 - seller at 46 keys, 42 key buyers

for

Die Job Disco Beat Down Das Hazmattenhatten - idk, read below

Mini for Hazmattenhatten:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325974441#!/compare/1707004800/1707350400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088636158#!/compare/1707350400/1707436800

The keys that leave Beshmodir's inv match histories as does the Maxes

That's 191 keys + ~30 for ~220 keys

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Disco%20Beat%20Down%20Das%20Hazmattenhatten/65c0cc87714ec9a42308813f - buyout at 465 keys apparently? What a weird amount

After some investigative work, I found out that next records buy orders at the ref value at the time, irrelevant to the actual key buyout. Meaning that when key rates are adjusted, it messes up the value of the keys at the time because it sees the old ref value and divides it by the new key price.

For more detailed context, you can check the discord here - https://discord.com/channels/250355601182425088/298073323219320834/1209853464981803108

Essentially, the buyout was actually 25666/64.055 = 400.68, or more likely, 400 keys flat

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/658c5648637bb79f770e20ab - key value from here because that's just before it was listed

This doesn't really matter in this instance since I don't think I have the full sale here, but suggestors, please discuss.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198184556093#!/compare/1695081600/1695168000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127341481#!/compare/1695168000/1695340800

Frostbite Scotch Bonnet + Burning Flames Larrikin Robin

Minis:

Frostbite Scotch Bonnet - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/653962d5db0c194dcb027718 - 215 keys indate

Burning Flames Larrikin Robin sales over the last 6 months

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/4828584953

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198875574345#!/compare/1698537600/1699488000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1698451200/1698537600

21.88 ref matches

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1706745600/1706832000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059502001#!/compare/1706572800/1706832000

6 keys match, but 25 keys leave and a taunt (Galactic Connection Taunt: The Killer Solo) that was sold for about 33 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046061905#!/compare/1706745600/1706832000 - at least 33 keys leave here

Seems to be around 60 or smth who knows

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059502001#!/compare/1707782400/1708300800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1707696000/1707782400

7 keys 1.77 ref matches

https://backpack.tf/item/13959005801 - Prettiest Star Wanderer's Wool enters the buyers inventory from STN

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1708214400/1708300800

14185019776 - shows that 61 keys 5.44 ref matches

Total of 68 keys 7.22 ref, some minor amount of ref leaves tazzy's inventory so this rounds to 68 keys

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/204000406

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127341481#!/compare/1695168000/1695340800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198184556093#!/compare/1695081600/1695168000

Is being used here

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198184556093#!/compare/1695340800/1695427200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140565712#!/compare/1695254400/1695340800

Bulk for Roboactive Reggaelator

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140565712#!/compare/1695427200/1695686400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027857565#!/compare/1695340800/1695600000

Bulk again

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/267062004

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048718338#!/compare/1692835200/1694044800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1693958400/1694044800

Dumped to qs.store, untrace

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1694563200/1694649600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1694476800/1694649600

Bulk purchase from qs.store, each individual price is probably very difficult to trace

So far we have a sale at around 68 keys

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Burning+Flames+Larrikin+Robin

https://prnt.sc/EME_fLJi-Nah - which seems pretty accurate

This makes it 215 + 68 = 283 keys, no buyout

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127341481#!/compare/1697760000/1697846400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1697500800/1697846400

+ 55 Keys + Soulful Slice Head Hedge for vfb Cloudy Moon Officer's Ushanka

Mini for the Head Hedge:

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/12200915379

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1698624000/1698710400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287940798#!/compare/1698624000/1698710400

Added alongside:

The DSpelled KAW Ushanka from above

for

Frostbite Counterfeit Billycock

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287940798#!/compare/1698624000/1698710400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196622954#!/compare/1698537600/1698710400

Instantly sold for 33 keys in the next sale

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198196622954#!/compare/1701129600/1701216000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044589114#!/compare/1701129600/1701216000

Sold for:

Fireflies Alakablamicon

No buyout I can find, also no sales that I could find

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163254451#!/compare/1692662400/1694044800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044589114#!/compare/1692835200/1693526400

This was untrace

Guess treating it as 33 flat?

Also, the ushanka here is duped - https://backpack.tf/item/550518931 - and there's no mini available for it so excluding this sale

Alright now I can look into minis for your sale:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1698019200/1698451200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210678091#!/compare/1698364800/1698451200

Sold for:

Pumpkin Moon Cool Capuchon - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/658bc5a38199675fa20bee96 - 142.5 keys

Burning Flames Professor's Peculiarity - soft mini as 107

DSpelled Kill-a-Watt Officer's Ushanka - taking it as 85 keys

25 keys

Total - 142.5 + 107 + 85 + 25 = 359.5 keys

Mini for Burning Flames Professor's Peculiarity

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/5719463460

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1697932800/1698019200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377865437#!/compare/1697587200/1698019200

85 keys 29 ref? That's what matches with Near ID

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198377865437#!/compare/1698278400/1698364800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210678091#!/compare/1698278400/1698364800

Untrace

Sale 3

Bulk for the sale here

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1698969600/1699142400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087911461#!/compare/1699056000/1699142400

Untrace

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087911461#!/compare/1700784000/1700870400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214802583#!/compare/1700697600/1700870400

Added:

72 keys

for

Starstorm Insomnia Rotation Sensation

Not fond of using this sale to price here, could be possible as a mini value though

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214802583#!/compare/1701648000/1701734400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1701648000/1701734400

83 keys 46.66 ref, checks out with the earlier STN sale tbh, no snapshots as proof

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1702425600/1702512000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062112767#!/compare/1702252800/1702512000

Added:

32 ref

for

107 keys

Just gonna call it 107 keys tbh

Sale 8

Everything else in that history is gambling

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/384;5;u13

Jan 21st 2024 - $300 / $1.7 = 176.47 keys LOL

Sales for Burning Peculiarity

85, 84, 107, 176

Yeah, impossible to really price this. Could take 107 as its price given buy orders have risen past 85 now

176 is clearly an outlier. I'd have valued this peculiarty at 84 - 107 if it was closer to the time of the sale tbh

Mini for DSpelled KAW Ushanka

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/3046156364

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1698624000/1698710400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287940798#!/compare/1698624000/1698710400

Added:

Soulful Slice Head Hedge - instantly sold for 33 keys

for

Frostbite Counterfeit Billycock

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285371555#!/compare/1702166400/1702252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086586048#!/compare/1701388800/1702252800

Only other sale on the Frostbite Billycock was bulk, so use it there

Someone can yoink that, just value the KAW Ushanka at 85 keys and you should be gucci to price it at 118 keys, just credit me thanks.

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287940798#!/compare/1698969600/1699315200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372388290#!/compare/1699142400/1699228800

Sold via scrap auction, taking as 68 keys

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372388290#!/compare/1699315200/1699401600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055618880#!/compare/1699315200/1699401600

52 keys match so sold for a loss (?)

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055618880#!/compare/1706572800/1706659200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088591924#!/compare/1706572800/1706659200

Sold for 85 keys

Sales

68, 52, 85

Running with 85 flat here

Final conclusion

Hey so really long comment but essentially we got the sales we need:

harvest moon outdoorsman?

3 sales at ~200 for amar bicorne, makes that sale ~160 for the ushanka

283 keys from the frostbite bonnet + burning larrikin sale

and nothing usable, duped vfb cmoon ushanka - 88 keys

360 keys (your purchase)

@Price Mods pluh I need some help, 360 ended up being accurate but also feels off compared to the rest of the sales but it works. Amar Bicorne sale values the Ushanka at the very most around 200, but definitely lower given the sales. Frost Bonnet sale seems pretty accurate. HMoon outdoorsman I have no idea, allegedly around 300 keys according to Tylow's comment.

There's room for a range of 280 - 360 here, excluding the outdoorsman sale because it sold for way less but also that VFB Ushanka sale has me second guessing just a little bit

This took a couple hours to put together 👍

Also edit: 90 + 115 + 140 + 25 sums to 370 keys - https://prnt.sc/EFqIqeFWdh3f

How did it go that long unnoticed LMAO

Cheers K1ng:

Pair of things here:

- Burning Professor's mini should be 84-107. Buy orders under 60 now and no way to tell where they were at the time of the sale.

- Spelled KaW Ushanka mini should include 52 and 68 even if it was sold for less. That way we don't ignore 2 out of 3 sales and keep the highest one.

So if I didn't mess the maths 280-330 should work here.

142.5 + [(84+107)/2] + [(52+85)/2] + 25 = 331.5 keys

Running with 280 - 330 keys

you might want to check ur maths

which one, there's a couple

looks good, upvoted for good suggestion, upvote