Using last 2 months.

Sale 1:

Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 49.33 ref (~2.75 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1706832000/1706918400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199204405281#!/compare/1706918400/1707004800

https://backpack.tf/item/6259094480

= 2.75 keys

Sale 2:

Sold with 25.33 ref (~0.4) for 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057187154#!/compare/1707782400/1707868800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272622859#!/compare/1707782400/1707868800

https://backpack.tf/item/12790263833

= 2.6 keys

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 9 ref (~2.15 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172388346#!/compare/1707091200/1707350400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1707264000/1707350400

https://backpack.tf/item/6259094480

= 2.15 keys

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 2 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1707782400/1707868800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110681797#!/compare/1707782400/1707868800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20The%20Jumping%20Jack&at=2024-02-15T10:30:59.343Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/10097228650

= 2 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199234651828#!/compare/1706054400/1709596800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199156289548#!/compare/1705968000/1706140800

https://backpack.tf/item/12790263833

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199156289548#!/compare/1705968000/1706140800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199522478149#!/compare/1706054400/1706140800

https://backpack.tf/item/12790263833

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199522478149#!/compare/1706054400/1706140800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057187154#!/compare/1706054400/1706140800

https://backpack.tf/item/12790263833

Untraceable, a small amount of metal matches

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272622859#!/compare/1707868800/1707955200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198802772410#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400

https://backpack.tf/item/12790263833

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1704758400/1704844800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139085248#!/compare/1704758400/1704844800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Screaming%20Tiger%20Taunt:%20The%20Jumping%20Jack&at=2024-01-11T10:08:36.562Z - labelled as 2 keys + 50.11 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/11123669269

Untraceable, bot flip

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357098924#!/compare/1708992000/1709510400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1709078400/1709164800

https://backpack.tf/item/9868522223

Bulk

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149503916#!/compare/1705622400/1706832000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1705795200/1705881600

https://backpack.tf/item/6259094480

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199204405281#!/compare/1707004800/1707264000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172388346#!/compare/1707091200/1707350400

https://backpack.tf/item/6259094480

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1708387200/1708473600 - Near ID: 14195405893

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199050174055#!/compare/1708387200/1708473600

https://backpack.tf/item/6259094480

Untraceable, only 2 keys + some metal match

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1705622400/1705708800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199201937808#!/compare/1705708800/1705795200

https://backpack.tf/item/10097228650

Untraceable. Starting to think the seller here might be the bot's owner.

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199201937808#!/compare/1705708800/1705795200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1705708800/1705795200

https://backpack.tf/item/10097228650

https://backpack.tf/item/13395298351 - unusualified

https://backpack.tf/item/9623612413 - unusualified

https://backpack.tf/item/8410458457 - marketplace/mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/6263061686 - marketplace

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30845;5;u3006

$7, Jan 15th & 18th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Keys were $1.69 on both days

7/1.69 = ~4.14, rounds to 4.15 keys

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/cUiW53X

https://backpack.tf/item/11123669269 - ~5.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12790263833 - ~5.8 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/8258368675 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/8410458457 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/10097228650 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6263061686 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6262219788 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/9868522223 - 2 keys + 53.33 ref, on STN

Sales at:

2

2.15

2.6

2.75

4.15 (2x, marketplace)

Buyers up to ~2.6 keys, excluding 2.6 and below.

There's a pretty clear discrepancy between what this sells for in keys and what it sells for on marketplace (this is evident in pretty much any unusual taunt). With a seller on STN for less than 3 keys, we should not be including the marketplace sales here. Excluding 4.15.

Taking 2.75 flat.

https://backpack.tf/item/6459642646 - mannco/scrap

https://imgur.com/a/dQPUwi2

https://backpack.tf/item/6487987636

A seller at 4 keys currently.