Re-suggesting, using sales from the last suggestion onwards.

Sale 1:

Sold for 3 keys + 56 ref (~0.85 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216241727#!/compare/1704067200/1704153600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372415006#!/compare/1683331200/1704153600

https://backpack.tf/item/3611356205

= 3.85 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for a key + a Scaredy Cat taunt (~2.3 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199207750538#!/compare/1707609600/1707696000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199521328482#!/compare/1707609600/1707696000

https://backpack.tf/item/14094221019

= 3.3 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 3 keys + 4 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199521328482#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170130799#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400

https://backpack.tf/item/14094221019

= 3.1 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890990852#!/compare/1703376000/1703462400 - Near ID: 13962877398

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198215761075#!/compare/1703376000/1703548800

https://backpack.tf/item/4726160226

= 3 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 2 keys + 40 ref (~0.6 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126300002#!/compare/1702684800/1702771200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075190391#!/compare/1702684800/1702771200

https://backpack.tf/item/13018383668

= 2.6 keys

Sale 6:

Sold to quicksell.store for 2 keys + 29.22 ref (~0.45 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198215761075#!/compare/1705449600/1705622400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1705363200/1705449600

https://backpack.tf/item/4726160226

= 2.45 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199571375389#!/compare/1702425600/1702512000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126300002#!/compare/1702425600/1702512000

https://backpack.tf/item/13018383668

Untraceable/Bulk

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149808520#!/compare/1701216000/1704153600 (won't update, but doesn't matter here)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198867419734#!/compare/1704585600/1705276800

https://backpack.tf/item/7405458098

SCM

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1704931200/1705017600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163665060#!/compare/1704844800/1705795200

https://backpack.tf/item/4445129686

Untraceable, only 35.88 ref match.

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Boston%20Breakdance/659d78814aacbd012f0f6d10

https://imgur.com/a/PwlA30j - was listed for ~2.7 keys.

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198370142026#!/compare/1698105600/1702166400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216241727#!/compare/1702080000/1702166400

https://backpack.tf/item/3611356205

Untraceable, appears to have sold from a scammer alt.

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198372415006#!/compare/1704240000/1704412800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164814063#!/compare/1704326400/1704412800

https://backpack.tf/item/3611356205

Bulk for Circling TF Logo Noble Amassment

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164814063#!/compare/1704585600/1704672000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1704585600/1704672000

https://backpack.tf/item/3611356205

Untraceable, some metal matches.

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1706140800/1706227200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202733371#!/compare/1555718400/1706486400

https://backpack.tf/item/3611356205

Untraceable, only 2 keys match.

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202733371#!/compare/1706486400/1706659200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199069442401#!/compare/1706486400/1706572800

https://backpack.tf/item/3611356205

Untraceable, appears a little bulky.

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850170270#!/compare/1676419200/1679443200 - backpack won't update for me

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199135952616#!/compare/1706227200/1706313600

https://backpack.tf/item/12070554185

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Boston%20Breakdance&at=2024-01-27T15:22:10.502Z - labelled as 2 keys + 31 ref

Untraceable.

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1705881600/1705968000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199201937808#!/compare/1705881600/1705968000

https://backpack.tf/item/11413081175

Untraceable

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199201937808#!/compare/1705881600/1705968000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125108615#!/compare/1705881600/1705968000

https://backpack.tf/item/11413081175

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Boston%20Breakdance&at=2024-01-24T15:22:10.502Z - labelled as 2 keys + 31 ref

Untraceable

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163665060#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Boston%20Breakdance&at=2024-02-02T05:32:43.331Z - labelled as 2 keys + 31 ref (~2.5 keys)

https://backpack.tf/item/4445129686

2 keys match, couldn't find the metal

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170130799#!/compare/1708560000/1708646400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199510528049#!/compare/1708473600/1708560000

https://backpack.tf/item/14094221019

Untraceable, probably gambled

#14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199510528049#!/compare/1708560000/1708646400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199017959799#!/compare/1708560000/1708646400

https://backpack.tf/item/14094221019

Same as above

#15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400

https://backpack.tf/item/7575863283

Untraceable bot flip

#16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199201937808#!/compare/1708473600/1708560000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999873164#!/compare/1708473600/1708560000

https://backpack.tf/item/3703311638

Untraceable

#17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199404806020#!/compare/1709683200/1709769600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1709596800/1709683200

https://backpack.tf/item/6645390966

Untraceable, looks like a scammer alt anyways

https://backpack.tf/item/4477513672 - scrap.tf storage

https://backpack.tf/item/3729548682 - gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/3597641236 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/5283189230 - taken out of bot inventory, dumped on marketplace

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30572;5;u3003

$7.99, December 3rd

$7.50, December 5th

$7.99, December 17th

$7.76, January 9th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - Keys were:

$1.80, December 3rd

$1.74, December 5th

$1.73, December 17th

$1.69, January 9th

7.99/1.8 = ~4.45 keys

7.50/1.74 = ~4.3 keys

7.99/1.73 = ~4.6 keys

7.76/1.69 = ~4.6 keys

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/T6RD7KS

https://backpack.tf/item/4726160226 - ~3.85 keys

Sales at:

2.45

2.6

3

3.1

3.3

3.85

4.3 (marketplace)

4.45 (marketplace)

4.6 (marketplace, 2x)

Seller at ~3.85 keys, the marketplace sales are going to be too high. Excluding 4.3+.

With sales this far spread out, it should be fine to go with a tighter range here. I had originally gone with 2.6-3.85 keys, before we had sales at 3.1 and 3.3 keys. I will now be excluding 2.6 and lower, as well as 3.85 and higher.

Taking 3-3.3 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199010848227#!/compare/1710201600/1710288000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1710201600/1710288000

https://backpack.tf/item/8896391872

Bulk/Untraceable. Gambled prior.