Event suggestion 20, Team 4!

Easter Event 2024 Suggestion for Team 4 - Accursed Balloonibouncer

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/4952857827

Only moved between Dezzy and a MannCo Bot, nothing to use here.

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/4962428507

Trade Nr. 1 - Quicksell.store Bot to Storage Account

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1708646400/1708732800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135387928#!/compare/1708300800/1708905600

Nothing useful here.

Trade Nr. 2 - Storage to User

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135387928#!/compare/1708905600/1710720000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199000372323#!/compare/1708992000/1709078400

Cannot trace anything back, might have not logged the hat going from the storage to another user so I cannot verify any exact trade.

Trade Nr. 3 - Bulk bought with other Items

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199000372323#!/compare/1709078400/1709164800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141685007#!/compare/1709078400/1709164800

Because Violin Hamster purchased a decent 3 or 4 different items from Churchill, I cannot pin down a key number.

Trade Nr. 4 - Keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141685007#!/compare/1709424000/1709510400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439498211#!/compare/1709424000/1709510400

Using ID 14241538188 I can verify 14 keys getting moved in the deal.

Trade Nr. 5 - 10 keys + Decorated Weapons

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439498211#!/compare/1711497600/1711584000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068736138#!/compare/1711497600/1711584000

On top of the 10 keys, 4 decorated weapons were traded.

After adding everything up, we end up with 27 keys

Weapon Minis:

1. FN Red Roscoe Pistol

https://backpack.tf/item/10254658964

Saw a sale for 12 keys (verified using ID 14175692865)

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155981570#!/compare/1708041600/1708128000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199513453937#!/compare/1708041600/1708128000

2. Strange FN Nutcracker MK.II Soda Popper

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Nutcracker%20Mk.II%20Soda%20Popper%20%28Factory%20New%29

A single sale occured on Feb 23 for 2.69 €.

Keys were relatively stable around 2.00 € at the time so 2.69 / 2.00 = 1.35 keys

3. Strange FN Smalltown Bringdown MK.II War Paint (Factory New)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/16143;15;w1;pk143;strange

5 sales at 3.49$ with current sellers also there.

On the various days:

Feb 22: 3.49$ / 1.70$ = 2.05 keys

Feb 26: 3.49$ / 1.70$ = 2.05 keys (2x)

Mar 1: 3.49$ / 1.69$ = 2.07 keys

Mar 6: 3.49$ / 1.68$ = 2.08 keys

Using 2.06 keys as the average.

4. Strange FN Smalltown Bringdown MK.II Claidheamh Mòr

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Smalltown%20Bringdown%20Mk.II%20Claidheamh%20M%C3%B2r%20%28Factory%20New%29

Most recent sale happened on Feb 23 aswell, 2.13 €.

2.13 € / roughly consistent 2.00 € at the time = 1.07 keys

10 + 12 + 1.35 + 2.06 + 2.07 = 27.48 --> 27 keys

Marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30763;5;u3024

March 14 saw 3 of them sell for 28.72$.

28.72$ / 1.67$ on March 14 = 17.20 keys --> Rounded down to 17 keys.

Sales:

14

17

17

17

27

Sell orders

The current owner of https://backpack.tf/item/4962428507 has listed his Bouncer for 30 keys after acquiring, put up within the last day.

Buy orders

Highest buy orders currently:

8.1 keys

8.1 keys

8.1 keys

8.1 keys

2.56 keys (General buy order for any effect)

Screenshots

Backpack.tf: https://imgur.com/a/FLuArTB

Marketplace.tf: https://imgur.com/a/NMcXj29

Conclusion:

Given the nature in which the three Marketplace listings sold, I have no other choice but to include 17 as the high end in the range as it is a consistent data point.

14 will make up the low end of the range.

27 will be regarded as a high outlier.

Final range suggested: 14-17 keys

~Made by Mucy, posted by Master Throne Crimson