Event suggestion 42, Team 4!

Easter Event 2024 Suggestion for Team 4 - Blooming Beacon Pool Party

Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/13368213398

Trade Nr. 1 - Untraceable

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199094535464#!/compare/1705104000/1709510400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198279184953#!/compare/1706745600/1708214400

The non-tradeable state when entering the Buyer's backpack would suggest they got it off the Community Market.

Unfortunately, the date range is way too wide to make any assumptions.

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/13224646122

This was put onto Marketplace.tf and subsequently sold, more on that later.

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/13176801094

Trade Nr. 1 - Keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198325595749#!/compare/1704499200/1704585600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1704412800/1704499200

Using ID 14016970781 we can see that 10 keys were traded. Does feel like a dump to a bot or buy order however.

Trade Nr. 2 - Untraceable... or is it?

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059160806#!/compare/1704931200/1705017600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130840216#!/compare/1709337600/1709424000

Now this one is an interesting wrinkle, Wheatley sold it to someone who was never logged and because of that we cannot pinpoint the exact key number he received.

But once again, another one sold on the SCM and this one has a clear date range to work with, leads me to believe Venustus got it off of said unlogged user.

Steam Community Market

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Pool%20Party

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key

On that date range (Mar 2 to Mar 3) only 2 were sold.

March 2, 6 AM - 18.46 € / 1.98 € = 9.32 keys --> 9.5 keys

March 3, 2 AM - 38.89 € / 2.00 € = 19.45 keys --> 19 keys

Considering the sale happened going from the 2nd to the 3rd of March, it would be reasonable to assume the latter sale is our Blooming Beacon getting sold here.

As a result, while the initial trade was untraceable, the SCM provides us with a sale worth 19 keys.

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/11928744338

Trade Nr. 1 - STN to User

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1706227200/1706313600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068310113#!/compare/1706140800/1706313600

Thanks to the Buyer's simple sheet, we can see that 16 keys + 20 ref left the backpack.

This rounded down will be 16 keys.

Marketplace.tf

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30570;5;u3117

Once sold on Feb 17 for 39.99$.

39.99$ / 1.70$ for that day's key price --> 23.52 keys --> 24 keys

Sales:

10 (Possibly buy order)

16 (STN)

19

24

Sell Orders

Currently none are selling it on either Marketplace.tf or Backpack.tf.

Buy Orders

Highest buy orders as of now are all non effect specific:

5.41 keys

5 keys

4 keys

3.8 keys

Screenshots

Backpack.tf: https://imgur.com/a/ytiTuYZ

Marketplace.tf: https://imgur.com/a/P7qOgGO

SCM sale: https://imgur.com/a/2NtjKWC

Conclusion::

After careful consideration, I have decided to go with the unholy abomination of a 16 to 24 key range.

The average will bring it to 20 keys when all is said and done.

~Made by Mucy, posted by Master Throne Crimson