Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/10660999686

Beginning of history is gambling followed by a dump to STN (excluding).

Sale 1

11 keys + 40.33 ref match from STN = ~12 keys (ID 14115720596), taking as 12 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199158781958#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/10332017450

Sale 2

13 keys match from buyer in seller's compare (ID 14182116301), taking as 13 keys

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964171516#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120063763#!/compare/1701993600/1708646400

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31192;5;u182

https://backpack.tf/item/12942184829

Dec 31, $39.99/1.704 = ~23 keys

Feb 10, $39.99/1.708 = ~23 keys

Key average: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

Dec 31, (3*1.68+2*1.74+1.72+1.69)/7 = ~$1.704

Feb 10, (3*1.7+2*1.72+2*1.71)/7 = ~$1.708

Another listed at $39.99

Sales

12

13

23

23

Classies: https://imgur.com/a/koHprlq

https://backpack.tf/item/10629172109 - MP unsold at $39.99

STN buys for ~8 keys, sell price is ~13: https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Fragrancium+Elementalis+Wild+Brim+Slouch

Pure sales and MP sales are inconsistent. On account of a seller at ~21 keys on SCM https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Wild%20Brim%20Slouch?filter=Fragrancium+Elementalis

excluding the higher MP sales. Taking a range with pure sales at 12 - 13 keys.