Suggestion: Spectral Wick Firearm Protector at 14 keys

Price Suggestion

~17.5 keys

spectral wick

44 votes up

3 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Wed, 17 Apr 24 13:23:20 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

Random fact #36: The first firearms originated in 10th-century China, they use bamboo tubes containing gunpowder and pellet projectiles were mounted on spears to make the fire lance. Think of it as a reverse bayonet, a 'gun' equipped on a melee weapon instead of the other way around.

MP sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31310;5;u270

11 Jan: 40/1.69=24

18 Feb: 35/1.7= 20 (https://backpack.tf/item/12184854879)

29 Feb: 35/1.69= 21

25 Mar: 35/1.67= 21 (https://backpack.tf/item/12334218064)

Item 1:

https://backpack.tf/item/14275055448

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198189275735#!/compare/1710979200/1711497600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199056418321#!/compare/1710806400/1711065600

Sold for Hweem fire Napalmer

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199056418321#!/compare/1711756800/1711929600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157990034#!/compare/1711756800/1711843200

Item 2:

https://backpack.tf/item/12233871891

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021859147#!/compare/1711497600/1711584000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199053233711#!/compare/1711497600/1711670400

Sold for Purple Energy Balkan's Brute

Item 3:

https://backpack.tf/item/12184854879

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067717452#!/compare/1709078400/1709164800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1709078400/1709164800

bulk

Sellers:

16.5 for 2mths

Buy orders @13.5, ignoring the higher buy order

https://imgur.com/a/MpMGOLV

We have 14, 20, 21, 24

14 flat, excluding others due to other sellers

Why do we ignore higher buy order btw? İt is not even 3 months old

İ also dont understand, how sold ones for 21 keys, proves your suggestion for 14 keys.

Why there is no sale for 14 keys so you can prove your suggestion?

There are 2 sellers at 15 keys and 2 at 16.4 with one being there for 2 months, so in any case 20, 21 and 24 are too high. And since the buy order is higher than what other sellers are asking for, it clearly indicates that they're not actively buying since they could just buy one for less than what their buy order is at

I still see no successfuly sold one for 14 keys. Just like how we ignored the buy order, we can also be sceptical about sell orders at 15 keys being real.

"Active" sell and buy orders wont give us proof for hats value, we need successful trade to prove that hats value is "x" keys.

Item 1 Sale 2 is sold for 14 keys pure. The histories matched.

While yes, you are right that we need successful trades to prove the hat value. We can use sellers and buyers at the time of suggestion to help us to determine the price range. If there are no sellers of this hat on classifieds, then I would be happy to make it 14-24. However, this is not possible because 1) 15-key sellers exist and 2) even if they don't exist, the 16.4 keys seller has been here for two months, which will indicate 16 keys is too high of a price point, which is why I excluded 20, 21, 24.

Of course, that does not mean this hat is now 14. The mods will need to wait for more sales to appear in order to make a final decision, lets say the other sellers did manage to sell for 15, then I will need to make a new price of 14-15. But as of posting this comment, it seems that 14 will be the price.

sorry i phrased my idea wrong and my words may give impression like that suggestion owes us only one succesful trade for 14 keys, it actualy owes us more than one succesful trade, as it says in community rules. to keep our newcomers safe from player manipulation scamms etc.

Rare Hats

Any hat can be priced based on a single sale if ALL these criteria are met:

- There are no other recent sales in the last 3 months

- The effect is not a summer 2013 effect. (robo effects can be used as they are often rarely traded and rarely unboxed)

- The hat went to a collector or person who intends to keep the hat. A collector can be identified by looking at the person's trade history, item history of similar unusuals in the backpack OR if the owner has not resold the hat 1 month after the sale occurred.

So.. his suggestion follows the rules?

i dont think ALL the criterias are met since item isnt bought by a collector

This doesn't fall under the "rare hat" guideline, again that is a guideline.

You have multiple sellers for 15 keys... i know that charon would take 14 keys pure as well.... so what is wrong with his suggestion exactly?

I dont think the sales he shows us proves hats worth being 14 keys, and yes that hat isnt rare, it cant be suggested with a singe trade, you are right.

And if you check item 1; you will see Окно sold the hat for 14 keys exect same day, that he bought it. So it is clearly a quicksell.

1- As you said, hat isn't "rare" cant be suggested by one sale.

2- Even if it is rare and we can suggest it with one singe trade; that sale for 14 keys is a quicksale.

3- Just how we doubt about that buy order for 15.63 key, we can also doubt the sale orders for 15 keys. Thats why active sale and buy orders doesnt give us proof for the price. We need successful trades.

You can not disregard the seller at 15 the same way you would disregard the buyer. The buy order is almost certainly an outdated listing, and is most likely not reliable considering there is a cheaper seller. If they were legitimate, the seller would simply sell to the buy order. The two sellers at 15, one of which has been listed for 11 days, would suggest that higher sales are not accurate.

For the record, I haven't checked all sales, but if these are all the sales within the last 3 months this hat has to offer, then the sale at 14 will suffice for now. As I said earlier, at the worst, it will be left open until the sale is a month old as its still a valid suggestion currently (assuming the sale is correct).

as i said, both active sell and buy orders can be fake. Thats why price suggestions should be based on nonquicksell successful trades. Proof can only be the trades that are allready done.

And you can give "active sell" and "active buy orders" to only support your proofs, they should been there only to support the actual proof, but here they actualy been taken as the proof.

We need done trades for 14 keys so that suggestion can be serious one.

Sales range at 20-24 keys, and one quicksell for 14 keys, that wont make the item 14 keys. There is no logical connection between what that suggestion trys to claim and the given proofs for the claim.

realistically, it is very, incredibly unlikely that a sell order for a generic unusual is going to be fake, absolutely nobody benefits from that. you're more than welcome to prove that any of these sell orders are fake, let alone all of them at the same time. in the meantime, stating that the sell orders "are potentially fake" is not valid counter-proof.

on the contrary, there are many benefits to making fake buy orders, such as attempting to get other traders (moreso bots) to follow, so someone or their friend can dump their item for more than what an item is realistically worth.

i also fail to see how the sale at 14 is a quicksell, the owner had the hat for over a week.

https://backpack.tf/item/14275055448

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199056418321#!/compare/1711065600/1710806400 - obtained no later than 22nd March

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199056418321#!/compare/1711756800/1711929600 - left their inventory no earler than the 30th of March.

i'm not sure you're understanding the suggestion format. you're claiming the suggestion is basing the price solely off of "active sell/buy orders" and that the suggestor should be providing a trade at the suggested price. while you're not wrong, this is not what Bob is doing. they have a sale at 14 keys, as well as sales at 20-24 keys. they're simply utilizing the overwhelming amount of sellers drastically lower than the sales as counter-evidence of the higher sales. if the item can't sell for 16.4 keys after being listed for 2 months, then, clearly, the sales at 20+ are not very representative of this item's price in keys.

additionally, actually looking at the high sales, we can see those are all marketplace sales. we should keep in mind that, especially so with marketplace's whitelist allowing for minor competition on the site, marketplace sales tend to be higher than normal sales, and therefore, have less weighting in suggestions. had all these sales been for keys, which is what we're pricing items at, then it'd probably be a different story here.

i want you to look at this with a non-biased point of view: would you be willing to pay 20 keys for this right now, despite 5 sellers for cheaper?

Just to add an other note, all the sales between 20 and 24 were Marketplace.tf sales, which are usually higher than pure sales and are often high outliers

I may have read items history wrong. But as the other friend pointed out, that hat isnt rare so we need more than one sale for 14 keys.

I wont be paying 20 keys for that hat but if that price suggestion hopefully passes and manipulates bots to lower their price to 14-15 keys i will be buying all of them. Which i allready have 3 of them that i bought for 14 keys about 5 months ago.

But as i said, unfortunately proofs lack for the claim. Active sell and buy orders are never the proof only a support. We need sales for 14 keys

suggestion prices really don't have much influence on what bots sell for. this item has been on the decline for quite a while, by the looks of it. if new sellers appear at 14, it's almost certainly nothing to do with the suggestion.

again, you're not wrong in saying that this sale needs more than 1 sale at 14, as according to the rules. however, if the 14 key sale remains the only sale for the next ~3 weeks, then this suggestion will be perfectly valid then, and this suggestion does not need to be closed only for it to be re-opened 3 weeks later if that were to happen. there's no harm in leaving this suggestion open until a new sale that isn't going to be countered by 5 sellers happens. for now, 14 is fine.

once again, the suggestor is not using the sell/buy orders as proof, they are using them as support for the listed price, as you're saying they should.

No suggestion uses orders directly as the proof. There is no other explaination for it giving 20-24 keys sale range which are irrelevant. Only 14 keys one is relevant becouse i was wrong it was not quicksell. But we still need more relevant sales to prove the claim. Which should be easy since hat is not "rare"

You said that suggestion doesnt need to be closed only to be resuggested. You absoluty wrong about it. Becouse before that poor work for the suggestion came out, i was here tracking that hat and a bid overthinking about it for 4 mounths, to make everything accordingly to rules.

Fun fact : Even the fun fact is wrong, that hat is from Final Combat

then you'll be shocked to learn that this suggestion, once again, does not use orders directly as proof. it uses the sale at 14 keys as proof.

i don't understand what you're trying to say about this needing to be re-suggested. if you have sales on this hat that aren't included here, you should include them.

for the record, as i stated earlier, i haven't looked at the other sales for this hat yet. i'm simply disagreeing with your points, because they're largely incorrect. i'm not saying this suggestion is perfect, and certainly will pass, but given the evidence we have, there is no reason this shouldn't be priced at 14 keys, and that 20+ should be excluded. here are some sales that were missed by the suggestor:

13 keys + 11.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087099341#!/compare/1711843200/1711929600 - Near ID: 14331396907

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1711843200/1711929600

https://backpack.tf/item/12299739359

16 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964546925#!/compare/1709164800/1709683200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111292616#!/compare/1709596800/1709683200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Spectral%20Wick%20Firearm%20Protector&at=2024-03-06T15:02:26.795Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/12334218064

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198450834803#!/compare/1707868800/1709251200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057412106#!/compare/1707868800/1707955200

https://backpack.tf/item/12250863426

Untraceable, most likely a backpack buy

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057412106#!/compare/1707868800/1707955200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199128182851#!/compare/1707868800/1707955200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Spectral%20Wick%20Firearm%20Protector&at=2024-02-15T15:02:26.795Z - labelled as 15 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/item/12250863426

Untraceable, only a couple keys match on the buyer's end.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198399954507#!/compare/1705968000/1709769600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1705968000/1706054400

https://backpack.tf/item/12218872389

Untraceable

Now we have sales at 13 and 16, and an unconfirmed sale at 15. keeping 16 in the range is a stretch, but if we can confirm 15, then that almost certainly can be included in the range.

with buyers over 13 keys, we should not include 13 in the range.

See even you found about %10 more expensive sales than the suggested price.

If the trades for that hat was 14 keys on avarege, i would defenetly say it should worth that. What i mean by avarage is if the lowest it goes for like 10 and highest it goes for 18. But here we have totally different price range like 13-24. It is almost like 14 keys is chosen spesificly by some speculater to collect em all.

Let me just add topme seller with 11 days old listing, i had item offer for it about 14 keys worth but he is been ignoring it since week, maybe im wrong but i strongly believe these sell orders are just fake which this price suggestion only based on :)

you didn't offer their listed price. by the sounds of it, you offered an item that you yourself value at 14. they have every right to decline/ignore the offer as long as it's not for their listed price, that doesn't make their listing any less valid.

It also doesn't matter if they are fake or not, since price suggestions should be based on successful trades. Which that suggestion abviously not. Which explains why we are still talking about if they are fake.

Btw topme ignores my friend request too just like how he ignored my offer, no counter offer, no decline, no nothing.

What about Charon? Also 14 keys in items is not the same as 14 keys pure...

Have u offered Charon 15 keys?

i commented on the profile of the buyer with 15.62 keys so he removed his buy order, there is no complication for this suggestion anymore, upvoted.

Suggested price is outdated allready, downvoted.

In this cheap prices 1 key gap means %10 which is a big amount. Imagine like 220 keys woth item suggested for 200 keys. Same gap in different scale.

To answer your question in the deleted comment, it was bought from the quicksell bot and deposited into MP

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Spectral%20Wick%20Firearm%20Protector/661907914919eec3870d37d0

so it was sold for 15 and is now on MP.

You are probably right with this now being outdated, but I will look into the other sales and update accordingly

We have allready enought sales recorded here, i think only problem now is deciding price by active sale and buy orders, which is done in this suggestion and both sale and buy orders are not avalible anymore.

with such a small margin between sellers and buyers, there's not much point to not suggesting this with a lone sale at the suggested price. worst case scenario, we wait until the sale is a month old.

as for the buyer, considering the listing is 2 months old, and there's a seller for cheaper, it's almost certainly invalid, and very unlikely that they'll even accept.

hey I am the fake seller at 15 and in fact I will accept the 15 keys please somebuy this off me