me when i wanted to do some more non-unusuals but i forgot gladiator is still down so maybe i just distract myself by updating these things

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/14084573211

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021805155#!/compare/1711238400/1711324800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081175830#!/compare/1711238400/1711324800

Sold for:

Kill-a-Watt Team Captain - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/65f7d82b42913f5e5c0fe7cb - indate at 210 keys

Sunbeams Galvanized Gibus

Catastrophic Companions - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/65fe2ab20c2665912d0cc058 - indate at 138 keys

28 keys

210 + 138 + 28 = 376 keys w/o the Gibus

The gibus is easily at least 100 keys, this is going to be high, probably close to 500 keys possibly

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Strange%20Catastrophic%20Companions/65fe8961cc923725e10997bb - uh, not sure about buyout, could have been listed at $800 on Marketplace so not too sure

No buyout which is a shame because this largely unusual overpay sale would buyout cap at one

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/13761335577

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045749377#!/compare/1709164800/1709510400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198297779899#!/compare/1709510400/1709596800

Sold for 431 keys

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/13615195059

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199201124947#!/compare/1710633600/1710720000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088063575#!/compare/1710547200/1710720000

Sold for:

DSpelled Scorching Flames Conjurer's Cowl

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088063575#!/compare/1711238400/1711324800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064724507#!/compare/1711238400/1711324800

428 keys

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064724507#!/compare/1712188800/1712275200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156749406#!/compare/1712188800/1712275200

Bulk for Strange Professional Killstreak Golden Frying Pan

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/10862281999

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198244962432#!/compare/1707436800/1707523200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271892201#!/compare/1707436800/1707523200

455 keys

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/10231626256

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061376237#!/compare/1707264000/1707350400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1707177600/1707264000

430 keys

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1709856000/1709942400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310691078#!/compare/1709856000/1709942400

The 515 items match histories with several STN bots

454 keys 61.11 ref

Rounds to 455 keys

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/8724670159

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105223387#!/compare/1705536000/1706140800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072654974#!/compare/1705449600/1705536000

Untrace

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/7844854094

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198835163155#!/compare/1711324800/1711929600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088063575#!/compare/1711238400/1711324800

2 keys match, untrace

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088063575#!/compare/1711324800/1711411200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064724507#!/compare/1711324800/1711411200

430 keys

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064724507#!/compare/1712188800/1712275200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156749406#!/compare/1712188800/1712275200

Bulk for GPan

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/7215689290

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129538189#!/compare/1709769600/1709942400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057452720#!/compare/1709856000/1709942400

Bulk for Darkblaze Bear Necessities

Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057452720#!/compare/1710460800/1711238400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064724507#!/compare/1710374400/1710460800

428 keys

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064724507#!/compare/1712188800/1712275200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156749406#!/compare/1712188800/1712275200

Bulk for GPan

Sale 16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156749406#!/compare/1712361600/1712448000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872222015#!/compare/1712361600/1712448000

Sold for:

Death at Dusk Crown of the Old Kingdom

85 keys

Item 9

https://backpack.tf/item/5321446051

Sale 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010514035#!/compare/1711238400/1711497600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198328282971#!/compare/1711411200/1711497600

55 keys match, probably some sort of bulk deal since I recall the dspelled aussies and unusual skins also get traded from iron to bandai

Item 10

https://backpack.tf/item/5307537665

Sale 18

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098885954#!/compare/1707782400/1708732800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049884052#!/compare/1707782400/1707868800

Untrace

Sale 19

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049884052#!/compare/1708387200/1708473600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045296162#!/compare/1708128000/1708387200

Untrace

Item 11

https://backpack.tf/item/4608528494

On and off various cash sites

Item 12

https://backpack.tf/item/4508127122

Sale 20

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199513453937#!/compare/1712102400/1712188800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057412106#!/compare/1712102400/1712188800

Strange Scorching Flames Merc's Mohawk matches, probably price suggest that tbh

Sale 21

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057412106#!/compare/1712448000/1712534400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199201124947#!/compare/1712448000/1712534400

Sold for:

Strange Oh Deer! - https://prnt.sc/iUV3Nvy_sxeb - 5.5 keys

Strange Specialized Killstreak Australium Scattergun - https://prnt.sc/fFVFQ5ztP65Q - 47 keys

Strange Festivized Professional Killstreak Australium Flame Thrower - https://prnt.sc/srIgIajwlbqn - 53 keys, non festivized at 56 keys

Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Rocket Launcher - https://prnt.sc/CecRRq1SEnXK - 80 keys

Professional Killstreak Frying Pan - https://prnt.sc/NATW6cv6w9Vh - 6 keys

Strange Specialized Killstreak Australium Wrench - https://prnt.sc/4jr6UwPl21It - 35.5 keys

Strange Festivized Specialized Killstreak Australium Sniper Rifle - https://prnt.sc/qn_DJCcpuygw - 34.3 keys non festivized

163 keys

5.5 + 47 + 53 + 80 + 6 + 35.5 + 34.3 + 163 = 424.3 keys

Item 13

https://backpack.tf/item/4307671843

Sale 22

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045955679#!/compare/1712016000/1712361600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199485225128#!/compare/1712275200/1712361600

Sold for what looks like:

Burning Flames Twisted Topper

Sunbeams Platinum Pickelhaube

Sunbeams Bottle Cap

Celestial Summit Beanie The All-Gnawing

60 keys

Sale 23

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199485225128#!/compare/1712275200/1712361600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198011542670#!/compare/1712275200/1712361600

Again, sold for what looks like:

Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Scattergun

Galactic Connection Taunt: Mannrobics

These match, but sale is likely incomplete

Item 14

https://backpack.tf/item/4300288890

Sale 24

MP sale for $800 perhaps

Sale 25

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150347450#!/compare/1710547200/1710633600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198989556372#!/compare/1710460800/1710633600

338 keys 2 scrap match

https://backpack.tf/item/4292697492 - Cauldron Bubbles Engineer's Cap

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253519146#!/compare/1710547200/1710633600

75 keys went towards the Engi Cap

338 + 75 = 413 keys

Item 15

https://backpack.tf/item/4284824216

On and off Mannco

Item 16

https://backpack.tf/item/4273191598

Same as above

Marketplace sale

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30706;11

Mar 15th - $800 / $1.67 = 479.04 keys, this is going to be high

Sales

~500? (unusual overpay, no buyout cap)

431 (pure)

DSpelled Scorching Flames Cowl (no usable sales)

428 (pure)

455 (pure)

430 (pure)

455 (pure)

430 (pure)

D@D COTOK + 85 (probably in range)

424 (aussies)

Lots of unusuals (no buyout again)

413 (pure)

479 (Marketplace)

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/XLNfBcQ0TV0i

3 sellers at 420 keys

Couple sellers above that at 430+

2 buyers at ~380

Concluding thoughts

Lazy minis aside, I think some of these pure sale are actually pretty high considering the 3 young sellers at 420 keys.

With the 13 usable sale I found, 8 of them were pure or aussies and in a range of 413 - 431, 6 of them are included, excluding the 2 455 pure sales. 1 of which was to STN when buy orders were likely higher pre-Gladiator bot shutdown.

Taking the young sellers into consideration as well as the fact the 3 usable-ish unusual overpay sales likely would have capped at a buyout closer to the sellers, I think 413 - 431 keys is fine even though it ignores half of the sales I found.

Running with 413 - 431 keys for the time being