https://backpack.tf/item/13243112790

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198849646740#!/compare/1711324800/1711929600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116184902#!/compare/1711843200/1711929600

Looks like 16 keys

[Key histories: https://backpack.tf/item/13715825788 https://backpack.tf/item/13056640057 https://backpack.tf/item/13912888801 https://backpack.tf/item/13788376081 https://backpack.tf/item/12891103656 https://backpack.tf/item/13913398933 https://backpack.tf/item/13914571468 https://backpack.tf/item/13144460764 https://backpack.tf/item/13744755163 https://backpack.tf/item/9782520544 https://backpack.tf/item/9022915006 https://backpack.tf/item/9955481525 https://backpack.tf/item/12877603067 https://backpack.tf/item/10269505691 https://backpack.tf/item/10433100612]

https://backpack.tf/item/13265373511

Dumped to QS.store, followed by gambling

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1706572800/1706659200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198389614549#!/compare/1706572800/1706659200

Bought from QS.store for untraceable amount

https://backpack.tf/item/13337856347

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199506146842#!/compare/1706659200/1709424000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1706659200/1709424000

Untraceable dump to bot

https://backpack.tf/item/13367073718

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110569289#!/compare/1706140800/1707091200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116942896#!/compare/1653523200/1709596800

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/13402714977

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064509181#!/compare/1706745600/1709164800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1709078400/1709164800

Untraceable dump to QS.store

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1710028800/1710115200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199005039000#!/compare/1710115200/1711497600

Duck Journal (15) + 4 keys = 19 keys

[Mini for Duck Journal:

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Non-Craftable%20Duck%20Journal&at=2024-03-11T22:41:53.141Z

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Non-Craftable%20Duck%20Journal/65ef905c20e93765631393cf

Taking ~15 keys.]

https://backpack.tf/item/13403862598

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1707091200/1707177600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010962615#!/compare/1707004800/1707177600

Untraceable sale from STN, current sell price is ~15 keys: https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Sakura+Smoke+Bomb+Firestalker

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010962615#!/compare/1707264000/1707350400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054270952#!/compare/1707091200/1707350400

15 keys match

https://backpack.tf/item/13797129954

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084668724#!/compare/1705536000/1705622400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073957789#!/compare/1705536000/1705622400

Looks like 16 keys + 31.77 ref = ~16 keys from seller's compare

https://backpack.tf/item/14200317339

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111910270#!/compare/1711670400/1712707200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256905086#!/compare/1712275200/1712448000

Looks like 1:1 w/ Miami Nights A Head Full of Hot Air (~12, https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6606b01aedd2a4ec2507489d)

Past 30 days

1 @ 14 keys 35.55 ref

1 @ 14 keys 49.33 ref

1 @ 15 keys 1.55 ref

1 @ 15 keys 6.22 ref

1 @ 15 keys 10.22 ref

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Sakura%20Smoke%20Bomb%20Firestalker&at=2024-02-10T22:34:19.265Z

https://backpack.tf/item/13254837658

https://backpack.tf/item/13273490686

https://backpack.tf/item/13853043724

https://backpack.tf/item/14032348058

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31359;5;u288

Feb 14, $41.99/1.71 = ~25 keys

Feb 19, $41.99/1.7 = ~25 keys

Feb 27, $41.99/1.69 = ~25 keys

Mar 24, $41.99/1.72 = ~24 keys

Mar 30, $41.99/1.67 = ~25 keys

Sales

12

15

15

15

15

15

15

16

16

19

24

25

25

25

25

Classies: https://imgur.com/a/PFvzx7l

A few young sellers at ~15 keys.

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Firestalker?filter=Sakura+Smoke

Sellers on SCM also at ~16 - 18 keys.

19 and above seem pretty high given lower sellers. 15 and also 16 seem like pretty common selling points. Since 12 seems more isolated, and there are many higher sales being excluded (many sales at 15 were also buy orders), excluding that too to balance out the range a bit. Taking 15 - 16 keys.