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Update!
7 years later and its still being B/O dropped.
Sale 1: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1706227200/1706313600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1706227200/1706313600
Dumped to bot for untrace amount.
Sale 2: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198917235918#!/compare/1706659200/1706832000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1706572800/1706659200
Dumped to bot for untrace amount.
Classies: https://i.imgur.com/tdK1FCj.png. Unsold at 11, the bot dumps support the drop. 11 flat.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1718668800/1718755200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199080009708#!/compare/1718755200/1718841600
https://backpack.tf/item/1725602444
8 keys, according to the buyer's end
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199080009708#!/compare/1718755200/1718841600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1718755200/1718841600
https://backpack.tf/item/1725602444
6 keys + negligible metal match
Sellers dropped to 10 keys now
looks like this might have to be 10 flat for a b/o drop since buyers are at 8.5 keys countering the sales provided by jarool.