Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/11066177718

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1706486400/1706572800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075491803#!/compare/1706400000/1706572800

23 of the keys leaving buyer's compare match to specific STN seller https://backpack.tf/u/76561198311498888, key histories:

https://backpack.tf/item/13914853401

https://backpack.tf/item/8481914220

https://backpack.tf/item/13657086462

https://backpack.tf/item/13646924699

https://backpack.tf/item/13685790708

https://backpack.tf/item/13914383317

https://backpack.tf/item/7036746192

https://backpack.tf/item/12867688102

https://backpack.tf/item/10967130399

https://backpack.tf/item/13658000918

https://backpack.tf/item/13709445311

https://backpack.tf/item/13914486277

https://backpack.tf/item/13702237017

https://backpack.tf/item/13652775672

https://backpack.tf/item/13687711804

https://backpack.tf/item/13652680183

https://backpack.tf/item/13679058167

https://backpack.tf/item/12905446961

https://backpack.tf/item/10979872453

https://backpack.tf/item/11586727232

https://backpack.tf/item/13709092983

https://backpack.tf/item/10598160205

https://backpack.tf/item/13914748056

https://backpack.tf/item/12874914793

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075491803#!/compare/1707264000/1707350400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199076018223#!/compare/1707264000/1707350400

1:1 w/ Blizzardy Storm Shellmet (33)

[Mini for Blizzardy Storm Shellmet

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075491803#!/compare/1707350400/1707436800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193412191#!/compare/1707350400/1707436800

Seller dumped the Shellmet the next day for 33 keys]

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199076018223#!/compare/1707523200/1707609600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1707436800/1707523200

Seems untraceable

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1708646400/1708732800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205383525#!/compare/1708646400/1708732800

Sold alongside Ominous Night Taunt: Bad Pipes for ?

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205383525#!/compare/1709078400/1709164800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199117399416#!/compare/1709078400/1709164800

A key matches

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199117399416#!/compare/1709078400/1709164800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439498211#!/compare/1709078400/1709164800

SS CGP Brigade Helm (20) matches

[Mini for SS CGP Brigade Helm:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129800418#!/compare/1707609600/1707696000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114335037#!/compare/1707609600/1707696000

25 keys match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117945210#!/compare/1708214400/1708646400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439498211#!/compare/1708473600/1708560000

Strange Iron Wood Mk.II War Paint (Factory New) (18) matches ->

{https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Iron%20Wood%20Mk.II%20War%20Paint%20%28Factory%20New%29

Paint sold for ~15-20 keys at this time?

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/16120;11;w1;pk120

Some later March sales at ~20

Call it ~18 keys.}

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199117399416#!/compare/1709251200/1709337600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164814063#!/compare/1709251200/1709337600

Seems like 1:1 w/ Arcane Assistance Taunt: Second Rate Sorcery (14)

{Taunt was bought by buyer for ~14 keys https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994021852#!/compare/1708387200/1708473600}

Mini at 14 - 25, ~20 keys.]

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439498211#!/compare/1709510400/1709596800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168625615#!/compare/1709510400/1709596800

Essentially a 1:1 w/ Blizzardy Storm Lawnmaker (30, https://backpack.tf/suggestion/65dfafda2f506718a603ac43)

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168625615#!/compare/1710460800/1710547200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199174625357#!/compare/1710460800/1710547200

Added Strange Professional Killstreak Rainblower (~3) + 1 key for Searing Plasma Elf Ignition (15.5)? Seems really low and potentially incomplete, computing this sale would give 15.5 - 3 - 1 = 11.5 keys = ~12 keys

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199174625357#!/compare/1711584000/1711670400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1711584000/1711670400

Dumped to STN, some ref matches

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1711584000/1711670400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055923827#!/compare/1711584000/1711670400

Seems like it sold for 8 keys + Pastel Trance Taunt: The Skating Scorcher (11, https://backpack.tf/suggestion/661eeddd278b7de60d082da0) = 19 keys

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055923827#!/compare/1711843200/1711929600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799390049#!/compare/1711843200/1711929600

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Polar%20Forecast%20A%20Head%20Full%20of%20Hot%20Air/66092e683a14616bcd0d9a77 - 72 key B/O

Looks like Cool Professional Killstreak Cookie Fortress Sniper Rifle (Factory New) (60) + 3 keys + Taunt: Kazotsky Kick (3.2) = ~66 keys

[Mini for Cool Professional Killstreak Cookie Fortress Sniper Rifle (Factory New):

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056722170#!/compare/1711497600/1711929600

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Cool%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Cookie%20Fortress%20Sniper%20Rifle%20(Factory%20New)/660a0aaaa1ab3c5e29086ff2 - 65 key B/O

Isotope Festivized Professional Killstreak Horror Holiday Bazaar Bargain (Well-Worn) (31.5, https://backpack.tf/suggestion/661e0910ef44f5229b055b41) + 20 keys + Festive Fever Taunt: Rancho Relaxo (no mini, buyers at 8 keys https://imgur.com/a/m0uEkjK)

{Mini for Festive Fever Taunt: Rancho Relaxo:

https://backpack.tf/item/11120891373

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198397414648#!/compare/1712707200/1712793600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198328282971#!/compare/1712793600/1712880000

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/item/3444977091

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056722170#!/compare/1712188800/1712275200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120672630#!/compare/1712188800/1712275200

Bulk for Eldritch Rift Taunt: The Homerunner's Hobby}

31.5 + 20 + 8 = ~60 keys]

Sales

12?

19

20

23

30

33

66+

Classies: https://imgur.com/a/04CyFbB

Buyer relisted at 72 keys - https://backpack.tf/item/11066177718

Buyers at ~12 keys.

STN buys at ~14 keys: https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Polar+Forecast+A+Head+Full+of+Hot+Air

The sale at 66 is likely a bit undervalued since the Rancho has no usable sales - it would likely end up somewhere around the seller's 72 key buyout. Buyer in question reselling for the same price doesn't inspire the most confidence and suggests this may end up being a high outlier sale (it is more than twice as high as any other sales). Electing to exclude this for now.

23 -> 33 -> ... -> 20 -> 30 -> 12? -> dumped -> 19 -> 66+ (excluding)

Sale at 12, even if correct, would be below buyers and should be excluded. 19 is the second most recent sale, so that seems appropriate as the low end. The hat was resold for lower following the 30 sale, and most likely the 33 sale. To me, that suggests 30 and (by extension) 33 may be high here. This also further supports excluding 66.

Using remaining sales, we end up with a range of 19 - 23 keys.