Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/11595845886

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1709683200/1709769600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198797950362#!/compare/1709683200/1709769600

~14 keys

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198797950362#!/compare/1709856000/1709942400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199226099312#!/compare/1709856000/1710028800

Untraceable

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199226099312#!/compare/1709856000/1710028800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155110999#!/compare/1709942400/1710028800

Dumped to bot for 12 keys + ~21.11 ref = ~12 keys

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9295204523

Tradeback

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/9294457745

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193412191#!/compare/1710374400/1710460800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1710374400/1710460800

Untraceable

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1712275200/1712361600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272560640#!/compare/1711324800/1712361600

Untraceable

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198272560640#!/compare/1712361600/1713225600

Untraceable

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31131;5;u159

Jan 25, $29.99/1.72 = ~17 keys

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pyroland%20Nightmare%20Sir%20Pumpkinton&at=2024-03-16T23:53:23.070Z

1 @ 13 keys

Can't seem to trace this sale

Sales

12 (dump)

13?

14

17

Classies: https://imgur.com/a/9GNFy7W

Sellers at

https://backpack.tf/item/9295204523 - 12.61 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11595845886 - 12.64 keys

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Sir%20Pumpkinton?filter=Pyroland+Nightmare

Seller down to ~19 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31131;5;u159

Seller at $42.99 - https://backpack.tf/item/10066333194

17 is too high, but 14 flat also seems a bit high given two lower sellers. Given the 12 key 21.11 ref buyer is reselling at such a similar value anyway (12 keys 41.88 ref), I think including 12 in the range here isn't super unreasonable. The potential sale at 13 supports, and the midpoint of this range would also match sellers right now if they were to sell.

Going with 12 - 14 keys.