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Mini for Burning Flames Bat Hat
Item 1
https://backpack.tf/item/13877539788
On and off cash sites
Item 2
https://backpack.tf/item/13172631597
Sale 1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271114604#!/compare/1709942400/1710028800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198852268767#!/compare/1709856000/1709942400
25 keys
Sale 2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198852268767#!/compare/1711497600/1711584000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1711497600/1711584000
26.11 ref matches
Dumped to STN
Sale 3
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1713225600/1713312000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199211403570#!/compare/1712793600/1713398400
Added:
13.11 ref
for
Clairvoyance Murderer's Motif
Pastel Trance Taunt: Yeti Punch
https://prnt.sc/mPNKIx73Fzyl - buyout maybe 23.5 keys lol
Item 3
https://backpack.tf/item/12173383059
Sale 4
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198814312263#!/compare/1703980800/1711929600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061440669#!/compare/1713571200/1713657600
Untrace, could have been 24 keys idk, histories aren't matching yet and the seller backpack hasn't fully loaded
Item 4
https://backpack.tf/item/12128735660
Sale 5
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198385957007#!/compare/1712966400/1713398400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1713312000/1713398400
23 keys
Item 5
https://backpack.tf/item/12109598399
Sale 6
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1712361600/1712448000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198213082531#!/compare/1709596800/1712707200
1 key matches
Item 6
https://backpack.tf/item/12107354483
Sale 7
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199048151985#!/compare/1707177600/1707264000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199104457222#!/compare/1707177600/1707264000
Untrace
Sale 8
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199104457222#!/compare/1707609600/1707696000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198845594644#!/compare/1707264000/1707955200
26 keys? Not too clear here
Item 7
https://backpack.tf/item/11913155162
Sale 9
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198246700372#!/compare/1708300800/1708992000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069954956#!/compare/1707955200/1708560000
Untrace
Item 8
https://backpack.tf/item/10617413911
Sale 10
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199232380670#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126034844#!/compare/1708214400/1708387200
Untrace
Sale 11
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126034844#!/compare/1708560000/1708732800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111292616#!/compare/1708473600/1708560000
5.66 ref matches
Sale 12
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198154174084#!/compare/1710374400/1710633600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198307230510#!/compare/1710288000/1710547200
Added:
3 keys
for
Orbiting Fire A Hat to Kill For - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6608c767528cafbcc80afe5d - was used here as the last sale
Excluding
Sale 13
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198307230510#!/compare/1710288000/1710547200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1710460800/1710547200
Sold for 24 keys
Sale 14
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1710720000/1710806400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157990034#!/compare/1710720000/1710806400
Untrace
Sale 15
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157990034#!/compare/1711411200/1711584000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057187154#!/compare/1711497600/1711584000
3 keys match
Sale 16
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057187154#!/compare/1711843200/1711929600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061200812#!/compare/1711843200/1711929600
Added:
7.44 ref
for
26 keys
Taking as 26 keys
Item 9
https://backpack.tf/item/10284370279
Sale 17
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1708992000/1709078400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1708992000/1709078400
24 keys match
Item 10
https://backpack.tf/item/10131067128
Sale 18
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066993011#!/compare/1703980800/1706659200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047971773#!/compare/1706572800/1706745600
Untrace
Sale 19
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047971773#!/compare/1706918400/1707004800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139034449#!/compare/1706918400/1707004800
Untrace
Sale 20
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139034449#!/compare/1707523200/1707609600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193412191#!/compare/1707609600/1707523200
Untrace
3 redumps or smth idk
Item 11
https://backpack.tf/item/9739385993
Sale 21
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983856237#!/compare/1708732800/1708819200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132627345#!/compare/1708732800/1708819200
Untrace
Sale 22
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132627345#!/compare/1708905600/1708992000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161265338#!/compare/1708905600/1708992000
Untrace
Sale 23
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161265338#!/compare/1708992000/1709078400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061440669#!/compare/1708646400/1709078400
23 keys from buyers side
Sale 24
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061440669#!/compare/1711584000/1711670400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054694661#!/compare/1511222400/1711670400
Sold for:
25 keys
Strange Universal Translator - 2 keys at the time
The Powerhouse Weapons Case #94 - ~1.3 keys
25 + 2 + 1.3 = 28.3 keys
Taking as 28 keys
Item 12
https://backpack.tf/item/9160149352
Sale 25
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1707091200/1707177600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1707091200/1707177600
Untrace, then gamba
Sale 26
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199245733895#!/compare/1707350400/1707436800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030619884#!/compare/1707264000/1707609600
Still gamba it looks like oh well
Item 13
https://backpack.tf/item/8845660312
Sale 27
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198839625949#!/compare/1706054400/1706486400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199194911968#!/compare/1706313600/1706486400
Sold for 28 keys
Sale 28
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199194911968#!/compare/1708646400/1709337600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108309959#!/compare/1708560000/1708646400
Untrace, likely dumped
https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Fifth%20Dimension%20Bat%20Hat&at=2024-02-23T19:28:12.318Z - 22 keys 5.66 ref or smth
Excluding above sale and this one
Sale 29
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108309959#!/compare/1708646400/1708732800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086011812#!/compare/1708473600/1708819200
Withdrawn
Item 14
https://backpack.tf/item/8720181027
Sale 30
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150801827#!/compare/1709164800/1710633600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220070825#!/compare/1710547200/1710633600
Added:
84 keys
for
Burning Flames Bat Hat
Using there
Item 15
https://backpack.tf/item/8659624417
Sale 31
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198411648941#!/compare/1710633600/1710720000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198804350694#!/compare/1710633600/1710720000
Untrace but 25 keys leave buyers inv
They match histories
Taking 25 keys
Sale 32
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198804350694#!/compare/1712361600/1712534400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1712448000/1712534400
Resold for 22 keys
Sale 33
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1712448000/1712534400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085308746#!/compare/1712448000/1712534400
Untrace
Sale 34
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085308746#!/compare/1713225600/1713312000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114899125#!/compare/1713225600/1713312000
4 keys match, 23 keys 22.11 ref matches
Taking as 23 keys
Item 16
https://backpack.tf/item/8423879380
Sale 35
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047852423#!/compare/1706313600/1706486400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400
5.11 ref matches
Sale 36
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1709769600/1709856000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059424894#!/compare/1709769600/1709856000
2 keys match
Added:
34 ref
for
some amount of keys
33 keys leave buyers inv
Keys that did not match histories:
https://backpack.tf/item/13687985236
https://backpack.tf/item/12403905872
https://backpack.tf/item/11893378899
https://backpack.tf/item/13914269937
https://backpack.tf/item/6815268654
https://backpack.tf/item/14175229106
https://backpack.tf/item/14175218772
https://backpack.tf/item/13736117602
https://backpack.tf/item/10539736640
https://backpack.tf/item/9150183709
https://backpack.tf/item/13682861955
https://backpack.tf/item/10979434101
https://backpack.tf/item/13911207450
https://backpack.tf/item/13718596429
https://backpack.tf/item/13912864166
Which is odd, that means that only 18 keys match of the 33 that leave, my assumption then is that some of the keys from selling the Cool Professional Killstreak Totally Boned Loose Cannon (Battle Scarred) go towards this, I'm not 100%
https://backpack.tf/item/11083271146
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310972287#!/compare/1709769600/1709856000
22 keys leave buyers inventory, 13 keys match ID on bambi's compare link
The following keys match histories going Rainy >> bambi >> Aero bot:
https://backpack.tf/item/11083271146
https://backpack.tf/item/6553221635
https://backpack.tf/item/5604201047
https://backpack.tf/item/7430307056
https://backpack.tf/item/6928363999
https://backpack.tf/item/6918849356
https://backpack.tf/item/6831757849
https://backpack.tf/item/11374290293
https://backpack.tf/item/10031794886
So yeah, it was exactly the missing 9 keys that went towards the Bat Hat
Added:
34 ref
for
some amount of keys
some amount of keys can be analysed to be 18 + 9 = 27 keys
This rounds down to 26 keys here
Item 17
https://backpack.tf/item/8268044273
Sale 37
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1706745600/1706832000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198294892146#!/compare/1706745600/1706832000
25 keys
Sale 38
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198294892146#!/compare/1707004800/1707264000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059209650#!/compare/1707091200/1707350400
25 keys again
Item 18
https://backpack.tf/item/8262822827
Sale 39
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199183171982#!/compare/1708214400/1708300800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197992487834#!/compare/1709337600/1709424000
Untrace, could be MP
Item 19
https://backpack.tf/item/8228744007
Sale 40
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044667221#!/compare/1707609600/1707955200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192088525#!/compare/1707523200/1707609600
23 keys 0.22 ref matches
Item 20
https://backpack.tf/item/8226538092
MP
Sale 41
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198995321528#!/compare/1713398400/1713484800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199652290612#!/compare/1713398400/1713484800
Gambling?
Item 21
https://backpack.tf/item/8211936949
Sale 42
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030376160#!/compare/1706832000/1706918400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1706832000/1706918400
Untrace
Sale 43
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1706832000/1706918400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086011812#!/compare/1706832000/1706918400
Withdrawn
Item 22
https://backpack.tf/item/8205620131
Sale 44
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088116479#!/compare/1710460800/1710979200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199404987310#!/compare/1710979200/1711152000
Untrace
Sale 45
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199404987310#!/compare/1709078400/1710979200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199215219582#!/compare/1710892800/1710979200
Untrace
Sale 46
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199215219582#!/compare/1710892800/1710979200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1710892800/1710979200
Bulk for 38 keys
Sale 47
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1711152000/1711238400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029388345#!/compare/1711152000/1711324800
Untrace
Sale 48
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029388345#!/compare/1712275200/1712793600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199188791783#!/compare/1712188800/1712880000
Untrace
Item 23
https://backpack.tf/item/8176260538
Sale 49
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199562788688#!/compare/1706486400/1711670400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400
Untrace
Sale 50
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1707955200/1708041600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197988159703#!/compare/1707955200/1708041600
I imagine 23 keys, 25 keys do leave the buyers inventory though
Taking as 23 keys as I see on the sellers side
Item 24
https://backpack.tf/item/8174960060
Sale 51
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199494911098#!/compare/1707091200/1707609600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090869623#!/compare/1707004800/1707091200
Bulk for Treasure Trove Brothers in Blues
Sale 52
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090869623#!/compare/1707091200/1707177600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193989746#!/compare/1706918400/1710633600
Sold for 25 keys
Item 25
https://backpack.tf/item/8163658819
Sale 53
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198833308836#!/compare/1712102400/1712188800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1712102400/1712188800
Sold for 24 key
Sale 54
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1712102400/1712188800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199184947839#!/compare/1711843200/1712275200
Sold for 27 keys I imagine, histories don't quite match but it'll support a range I imagine
Item 26
https://backpack.tf/item/8162405730
Excluding trade to and from a scammer
Then 3 bot redumps, withdrawn from bot and listed on MP
Item 27
https://backpack.tf/item/8160657720
Sale 55
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114644154#!/compare/1707264000/1707523200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1707177600/1707264000
Untrace
Sale 56
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1709078400/1709164800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198967364277#!/compare/1710806400/1712188800
Sold for:
26 keys 12.11 ref
Marketplace sales
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31058;5;u122
Jan 27th - $54 / $1.7 = 31.76 keys
Feb 25th - $52 / $1.7 = 30.59 keys
Mar 2nd - $50 / $1.68 = 29.76 keys
Mar 12th - $52 / $1.68 = 30.95 keys
Apr 14th - $50 / $1.65 = 30.30 keys
Sales
25
Dumped
23.5? buyout cap
23
26?
24
26
24
23
28
28
25
Dumped for 22
23
26
25
25
23
23
25
24
27
26
32
31
30
31
30
Current Listings
https://prnt.sc/OVABQpKoZ-qD
2 sellers at 25 keys
10 days at $50
Seller at 28 keys
2 months at 28 keys
2 years at 50 keys what
1 buyer at 23 keys
1 bot at 22 keys
Everyone else at 21 and below
Ordering sales
1x 22
5x 23
3x 24
5x 25
4x 26
1x 27
2x 28
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MP sales
2x 30
2x 31
1x 32
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Concluding thoughts
Excluding all the MP sales for being obviously high
2 of the 25 key sales have been dumped for less
I think 23 is a more than common trading point to be the lower end of this range
I think 28 might be a bit too high given we have sellers at 25 keys
I would rather go 23 - 27 keys, giving a middle range of 25 and narrowing the existing range
23 - 27 bap