Using last 3 months.

Sale 1:

Sold with negligible metal for 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1708819200/1708905600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198984562039#!/compare/1707955200/1709164800

https://backpack.tf/item/13922801342

= 8 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 8 keys + 1 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085308746#!/compare/1705968000/1706054400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164660705#!/compare/1705968000/1706140800

https://backpack.tf/item/11132366521

= 8 keys

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 7 keys + 19.77 ref? (rounds to 7.5 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192632255#!/compare/1707523200/1707609600 - Near ID: 14154287972

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139085248#!/compare/1707523200/1707609600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Fist%20Bump&at=2024-02-12T02:14:40.397Z - labelled as 7 keys + 19.77 ref on gladiator

https://backpack.tf/item/12371691555

No keys match (at least on the seller’s end, didn’t take the effort to check all keys on the buyer’s end), but with all the metal matching, I’m going to assume this sale is correct here.

= 7.5 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 7 keys + 5 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057187154#!/compare/1713225600/1713312000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155287548#!/compare/1712966400/1713312000

https://backpack.tf/item/12700745507

= 7 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 7 keys + 1 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055694560#!/compare/1708214400/1708300800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120107112#!/compare/1708214400/1708387200

https://backpack.tf/item/13173437550

= 7 keys

Sale 6:

Sold to a bot for 7 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199521837458#!/compare/1708214400/1708300800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199032721186#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400

https://backpack.tf/item/11948747905

= 7 keys

Sale 7:

Sold for 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872229390#!/compare/1713052800/1713225600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041595542#!/compare/1712620800/1713225600

https://backpack.tf/item/13245536527

The seller bought some items with the keys obtained from the trade. One key went towards the Rubdown taunt, the other 5 went towards the tomislav. The last key on the buyer’s end sold for metal.

= 6 keys

Sale 8:

Sold to a bot for 5 keys + 41 ref (rounds to 5.5 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204293647#!/compare/1711756800/1712361600 - Near ID: 14345042293

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057187154#!/compare/1712275200/1712361600

https://backpack.tf/item/12700745507

= 5.5 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177989495#!/compare/1708646400/1708905600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132627345#!/compare/1708732800/1708819200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Fist%20Bump&at=2024-02-26T02:14:40.397Z - labelled as 6 keys + 10.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/13967780474

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161265338#!/compare/1709856000/1710028800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085308746#!/compare/1709942400/1710028800

https://backpack.tf/item/13967780474

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004096792#!/compare/1707955200/1708214400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400

https://backpack.tf/item/13922801342

Bulk for Searing Grenadier’s Softcap

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198984562039#!/compare/1710288000/1710374400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1710201600/1710288000

https://backpack.tf/item/13922801342

Untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198406388524#!/compare/1707696000/1709510400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029736015#!/compare/1708560000/1708646400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Fist%20Bump&at=2024-02-24T02:14:40.397Z - labelled as 6 keys + 9 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/13581144988

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/13554978724 - unusualified

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101483088#!/compare/1707436800/1707523200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111292616#!/compare/1707436800/1707523200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Fist%20Bump&at=2024-02-11T02:14:40.397Z - labelled as 7 keys + 17.55 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/13245536527

Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111292616#!/compare/1707436800/1707523200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1707436800/1707523200

https://backpack.tf/item/13245536527

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1711411200/1711497600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872229390#!/compare/1711324800/1711497600

https://backpack.tf/item/13245536527

Untraceable

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066792947#!/compare/1708214400/1708387200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204293647#!/compare/1708300800/1708992000

https://backpack.tf/item/12700745507

SCM

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260114326#!/compare/1708041600/1712361600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199521837458#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400

https://backpack.tf/item/11948747905

Backpack buy

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199032721186#!/compare/1709251200/1709337600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084635414#!/compare/1709251200/1709337600

https://backpack.tf/item/11948747905

Untraceable

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1709683200/1709769600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197972096709#!/compare/1709510400/1709769600

https://backpack.tf/item/11152337385

7 keys match. Was most likely 7.5 keys given the nature of the buyer’s compare link and time of the sale, but I can’t prove it.

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203084423#!/compare/1706486400/1706572800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198307458410#!/compare/1706572800/1706659200

https://backpack.tf/item/9594092523

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/9732509387 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/9538657423 - gambled

Marketplace Sales:

$24.99, Feb 2nd

$24.99, April 16th

These sales are about double the value of current sellers. Excluding them.

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/is2WugN

https://backpack.tf/item/13967780474 - ~7.05 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13922801342 - ~7.7 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13049160956 - 9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11132366521 - 9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12371691555 - 10 keys

https://imgur.com/a/BaxTMWf

https://backpack.tf/item/9647068132 - ~7.05 keys (currently unavailable)

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Holy+Grail+Taunt%3A+The+Fist+Bump

Sales at:

5.5

6

7 (3x)

7.5

8 (2x)

The sale at 5.5 is a lone sale to a bot’s buy order, we don’t have much proof for other sales around this value. Excluding 5.5.

2 sellers at ~7 keys, one at ~7.7 keys. These would indicate that anything above 7 keys is too high. On top of that, the sales above 7 keys are over 2 months old, or are approaching 2 months old. There has been a clear change in the market over the course of the last 3 months. This is generally why I limit suggestions on taunts to use sales from the last 2 months instead of 3.

Taking 6-7 keys.