Resugg with Shuffle Spy ;3

Proof:

Sale #1, #2, #3, #4:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31262;5;u224

#1 Dec 7 2023 $31.99 , marketplace actually doesnt go back to this date so I'm going to use Dec 8, Dec 9, and Dec 10's key price of $1.74 making this 18 keys

#2 Dec 23 2023 $31.99 , from Dec 17-Dec 23 (7 days) the median key price was (1.73,1.72,1.7,1.7,1.68,1.67,1.67 / 7) = $1.7 (or 1.6957 to be exact), making this 18.8 keys (19).

#3 Dec 29 2023 $34.99 , from Dec 23-Dec 29 (7 days) the median key price was (1.67, 1.64, 1.64, 1.72, 1.7, 1.68, 1.68 / 7) = $1.6757 aka $1.68, making this sale 20.8 keys (21).

#4 Jan 10 2024 $34.99 , from Jan 4 - Jan 10 (7 days) the median key price was (1.68, 1.68, 1.68, 1.69, 1.69, 1.69, 1.69 / 7) = $1.6857 aka $1.69 making this sale 20.7 keys (21).

Sale #5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198320941477#!/compare/1708905600/1709078400 ~ sold for 16 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084280019#!/compare/1708819200/1708905600 ~ the reason why not all of the keys match (even though they were all added together in the seller screenshot) is it looks on the buyer side that he bought some keys off a bot (dolphin) with ref to use in the trade. But you can still see 12 or so of the keys here.

= 16

Sale #6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1705363200/1705449600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198320941477#!/compare/1705363200/1705536000 ~ bought for 13 keys?

This doesn't make sense as the site itself buys it for more than 13 keys https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Crustacean+Sensation+Undercover+Brolly

Sale #7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199076763129#!/compare/1703635200/1704240000 ~ ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1703894400/1703980800 ~ bought for 20 keys 8.88 ref

= 20

Sale #8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874902608#!/compare/1703721600/1704067200 ~ potentially traded in for a king cardbeard? or sold to stn to trade for that? not sure.

Sale #9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111083016#!/compare/1707350400/1709251200 ~ ?

Sale #10:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064724507#!/compare/1707264000/1707350400 ~ Russell claims he crabbed it (and lost)

Sale #11:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199468748840#!/compare/1684886400/1704326400 ~ ?

Sale #12:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142423178#!/compare/1703980800/1704240000 ~ sold for 12 keys + ref, under what stn buys it for now.

Sale #13:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1703462400/1703548800 ~ sold for 14 keys

= 14

Sale #14:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1703721600/1703808000 ~ ?

Sale #15:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841392541#!/compare/1704844800/1708473600 ~?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1703721600/1703808000 ~ ?

Sale #16:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047971773#!/compare/1703635200/1703721600 ~ sold to stn for 12 keys + ref, again, under what stn buys it for now (link earlier in sugg in sale #6)

Sale #17:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198290141747#!/compare/1702252800/1702339200 ~ ? given away sadge

Sale #18:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999173629#!/compare/1709596800/1709683200 ~ bulk and prob better used on the fiend

So what have we learnt?

Sales @ 18, 19, 21, 21, 16, 20, 14

>>Sorted>>>>> 14, 16, 18, 19, 20, 21, 21

Sale 7 isn't usable for two reasons. First, the buyer dumped the Brolly to stn a few days later. Second, you can see that they bought an Unusual Mannrobics too.

Sale 11 looks like 13 Keys + 1.22 Refined

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1704153600/1704240000

Between sales 12 and 13, someone paid 14 Keys to then dump this for 12 Keys a few days later.

Sales 14 and 15 are the same sale.

https://imgur.com/a/IHsWWw2 - There's now a seller at 15 Keys and an SCM seller at 13 Keys to watch.

https://backpack.tf/item/13070435782 - The seller at 15 Keys

Those, the constant dumps, and all the bot sales suggest 21 is too high.

If the SCM seller is still there in a week, 13 to 19 could work here. 20 is invalid, but 3 higher sales support keeping 19 in the range.

With sale 11, 13 should still be fine as a low end. The buyer in the Throttlehead sale you commented below now has it listed for 19, reinforcing excluding 21. 13 - 19 would still work.