Using last 3 months.

Sale 1:

Sold for 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1709510400/1709596800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198359901481#!/compare/1709424000/1709596800

https://backpack.tf/item/12537719854

= 15 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 15 keys + negligible metal (buyer’s end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1712448000/1712534400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199487516948#!/compare/1712448000/1712620800

https://backpack.tf/item/12537719854

= 15 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1707350400/1707436800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163466013#!/compare/1707350400/1707436800

https://backpack.tf/item/4459559972

= 15 keys

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 14 keys + negligible metal (buyer’s end)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098065840#!/compare/1707955200/1708041600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029736015#!/compare/1707955200/1708041600 - 14 keys before the Rising Ritual Schadenfreude match

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Mannrobics&at=2024-02-16T14:54:00.240Z - labelled as 14 keys + 23.88 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/7701398825

= 14 keys

Sale 5:

Sold to a bot for 14 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198191744974#!/compare/1707523200/1707609600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199183541107#!/compare/1707436800/1707609600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Mannrobics&at=2024-02-11T14:54:00.240Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/4819251606

= 14 keys

Sale 6:

Sold for 13 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112626390#!/compare/1710979200/1711065600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117597416#!/compare/1710979200/1711065600

https://backpack.tf/item/14271882078

= 13 keys

Sale 7:

Sold to a bot for 11 keys + more than half a key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198979371398#!/compare/1711756800/1711929600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057187154#!/compare/1711670400/1711756800

https://backpack.tf/item/6192007129

May seem too low to be correct, but this sale occurred before gladiator bots got revived, when buy orders were cheaper.

= 12 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141145681#!/compare/1710460800/1712966400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198193707370#!/compare/1710374400/1714089600

https://backpack.tf/item/14046542345

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198856753348#!/compare/1708214400/1708300800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400

https://backpack.tf/item/13963667748

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1709596800/1709683200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117597416#!/compare/1709510400/1709683200

https://backpack.tf/item/13963667748

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997843710#!/compare/1710460800/1710633600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1710547200/1710633600

https://backpack.tf/item/12558930488

Bulk

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1710720000/1710806400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152406063#!/compare/1710720000/1710892800

https://backpack.tf/item/12558930488

Something involving the unusual revolver. Shouldn’t be used here without a B/O to cap at.

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152406063#!/compare/1710892800/1711152000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199521823568#!/compare/1710892800/1710979200

https://backpack.tf/item/12558930488

Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292443613#!/compare/1708560000/1708732800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1708646400/1708732800

https://backpack.tf/item/12537719854

Bulk

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198359901481#!/compare/1709424000/1709596800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1709510400/1709596800

https://backpack.tf/item/12537719854

Untraceable/Bulk-ish. This follows Sale 1.

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163420636#!/compare/1706572800/1706832000

https://backpack.tf/item/6895611908

Bulk

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198279567555#!/compare/1707868800/1712534400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057412106#!/compare/1707782400/1707868800

https://backpack.tf/item/6272249915

Backpack buy

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105418919#!/compare/1708646400/1710547200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1709510400/1709596800

https://backpack.tf/item/6192007129

Bulk for Kill-a-Watt Blast Defense

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1710028800/1710115200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198979371398#!/compare/1710028800/1710201600

https://backpack.tf/item/6192007129

Appears to have sold with some keys/metal for some junk. Not an ideal trade to be using here, especially without a B/O cap. Excluding.

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192632255#!/compare/1704499200/1707350400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199197624825#!/compare/1707264000/1707350400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Mannrobics&at=2024-02-08T14:54:00.240Z - labelled as 13 keys + 55.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/5708260239

Untraceable

#14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199183541107#!/compare/1709942400/1710028800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198878340449#!/compare/1709337600/1710028800

https://backpack.tf/item/4819251606

Untraceable

#15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198878340449#!/compare/1709337600/1710028800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084589742#!/compare/1710028800/1710115200

https://backpack.tf/item/4819251606

Untraceable

#16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376245483#!/compare/1711929600/1714089600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117597416#!/compare/1711843200/1711929600

https://backpack.tf/item/8993210620

Untraceable, but almost certainly sold for 13 keys again. Same buyer from Sale 6.

https://backpack.tf/item/13887324331 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/13036149596 - scammer

https://backpack.tf/item/12778318303 - gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/8937380303 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/7227241865 - marketplace

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1162;5;u3003

$35.99, Feb 3rd & 14th, April 6th & 20th

These sales would end up being around 20+ keys each. Given current sellers, and the sales not even reaching 16 keys, these are going to be too high. Excluding the marketplace sales.

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/VmE8eVR

https://backpack.tf/item/8735608900 - 17 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6272249915 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/8993210620 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/14271882078 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/9213018674 - marketplace

Sales at:

12

13

14 (2x)

15 (3x)

One of the sales at 15 was a tradeback, but this is dropping, and we have other sales at 15 anyways.

Decent amount of buyers at 13 keys, excluding 12 and 13.

Taking 14-15.