Using last 3 months.

Sale 1:

Sold for 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1707004800/1707091200 - paint wasn’t involved, doesn’t change value anyway.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102244978#!/compare/1707004800/1707091200

https://backpack.tf/item/11010970054

= 7 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 7 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102237820#!/compare/1707264000/1707523200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200898387#!/compare/1704844800/1707609600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Panzer%20Pants&at=2024-02-10T15:45:58.414Z - labelled as 7

https://backpack.tf/item/7344316794

Nothing matches, but it’s pretty damn clear it sold for 7 keys here.

Gambled afterwards.

= 7 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029736015#!/compare/1709164800/1709251200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150402300#!/compare/1709251200/1709769600

https://backpack.tf/item/7344316794

= 7 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 7 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117853826#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://backpack.tf/item/7313823506

= 7 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 6 keys + 30 ref (rounds to 6.5 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139085248#!/compare/1713830400/1713916800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122460993#!/compare/1713484800/1714003200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Panzer%20Pants&at=2024-04-25T15:30:29.495Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/12523796026

= 6.5 keys

Sale 6:

Sold to a bot for 6 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199210154597#!/compare/1704931200/1708300800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132627345#!/compare/1708214400/1708300800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Panzer%20Pants&at=2024-02-19T15:30:29.495Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/12523796026

= 6 keys

Sale 7:

Sold for 5 keys + 50 ref (rounds to 6)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400749309#!/compare/1707523200/1707609600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120107112#!/compare/1707350400/1707868800

https://backpack.tf/item/7278842441

2 keys went towards the uncraftable soldier’s stash on the seller’s end. The previous owner of the Stash matches with the two keys grouped together on the buyer’s end.

= 6 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161265338#!/compare/1709856000/1710028800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139085248#!/compare/1709942400/1710028800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Panzer%20Pants&at=2024-03-10T15:30:29.495Z - labelled as 5 keys + 23.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/12523796026

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051593311#!/compare/1708473600/1712361600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1708905600/1708992000

https://backpack.tf/item/11151852284

Bulk

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986780642#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1706400000/1706486400

https://backpack.tf/item/11010970054

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198300774682#!/compare/1706745600/1714089600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1713484800/1713571200

https://backpack.tf/item/8237785408

Bulk/untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066993011#!/compare/1708646400/1709942400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047971773#!/compare/1708992000/1709078400

https://backpack.tf/item/7662776919

Bulk or something

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047971773#!/compare/1713657600/1713830400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060189392#!/compare/1713657600/1713830400

https://backpack.tf/item/7662776919

Dunno, same as above

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040005664#!/compare/1708905600/1708992000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161265338#!/compare/1709856000/1710028800

https://backpack.tf/item/7480248106

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161265338#!/compare/1709856000/1710028800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125108615#!/compare/1709942400/1710028800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Panzer%20Pants&at=2024-03-10T15:45:58.414Z - labelled as 5 keys + 23.66 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/7480248106

Untraceable. 5 keys match, albeit mixed with a bunch of other stuff, but can’t find any metal matching.

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163665060#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Panzer%20Pants&at=2024-02-01T15:45:58.414Z - labelled as 5 keys + 47.11 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/7448779023

Untraceable. 5 keys match.

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199161916038#!/compare/1707696000/1707782400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1707696000/1707782400

https://backpack.tf/item/7344316794

Untraceable

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1707868800/1707955200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029736015#!/compare/1707868800/1707955200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20Panzer%20Pants&at=2024-02-16T15:45:58.414Z - labelled as 5 keys + 60 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/7344316794

Untraceable, probably a bot flip

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117853826#!/compare/1707955200/1708300800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1708128000/1708300800

https://backpack.tf/item/7313823506

Untraceable. This follows Sale 4.

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1710720000/1710806400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053817400#!/compare/1710806400/1710892800

https://backpack.tf/item/7313823506

Untraceable

#14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198397500212#!/compare/1713398400/1713484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198421652838#!/compare/1713398400/1713484800

https://backpack.tf/item/7259837956

Untraceable. Unusualified, and probably gambled prior.

https://backpack.tf/item/14116133828 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12859585222 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12521776531 - marketplace, probably unusualified too

https://backpack.tf/item/12086532653 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/11239572796 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/10189264500 - unusualified

https://backpack.tf/item/9554597120 - untraceable, may have been unusualified by current owner.

https://backpack.tf/item/7715919361 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/7428133197 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7259675337 - same trades as #5 & #6

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1196;5;u3003

$15.79, Jan 31st

$15.33, Feb 9th

These sales would end up being at least 8 keys, which is significantly higher than the current sellers. Excluding these sales.

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/vEujR4z

https://backpack.tf/item/7259837956 - ~6.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11151852284 - ~6.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/8919365363 - 9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7428133197 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/9696965890 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/14116133828 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12859585222 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12086532653 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/7448779023 - marketplace

https://imgur.com/a/ZswSYLu

https://backpack.tf/item/10189264500 - ~6 keys

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Holy+Grail+Taunt%3A+Panzer+Pants

Sales at:

6 (2x)

6.5

7 (4x)

We do have an overwhelming amount of sales at 7 keys, however, we have 3 sellers for cheaper, one of which we can confirm hasn’t sold in over a month. If we look closely at the 7 key sales, we can see:

Sale 1 is fairly close to 3 months old (~5th Feb)

Sale 2 is around 2.5 months old (~10th Feb) and was bought presumably for gambling

Sale 4 is very close to being over 3 months old (~1st Feb), and re-sold to a bot, presumably for cheaper (#12).

Sale 3 is the only sale that is still valid and lies within the last 2 months.

There’s been a pretty clear shift in this item’s value during that period. This is generally why I personally use the last 2 months to price unusual taunts in many cases. It would be ideal to exclude these 7 key sales here.

Additionally, we have an overabundance of untraceable sales below 6 keys on gladiator. #1, 8 & 9 all round to 5.5 keys, and we have #11 which is a little under 6 keys, as well as Sale 7, which barely rounds up to 6 keys. There are also no current buyers anywhere near 5.5 keys. Since we have an abundance of gladiator sales at ~5.5 keys, it should be fine to use that as our low-end.

Taking 5.5-6.5 keys.