Suggestion: Time Warp Desert Marauder at 220–320 keys

Price Suggestion

~390 keys

53 votes up

5 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Wed, 03 Jul 24 03:41:34 +0000 by Mindacos.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Resuggesting from the last suggestion made which is why there's some outdated sales included here as they were in-date at the time the suggestion was made! Credits to Tired Bed for the info on their sales!

Mini for Hellfire Base Metal Billycock

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/1863697676

Duped, will still look at here

Sale #1

Sold for an Anti-Freeze Cosa Nostra Cap (225 keys) (unusual can be seen in both sides of the compares)-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199052481723#!/compare/1699574400/1700092800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118776341#!/compare/1699920000/1700092800

Sale #2

Sold with 70 keys for a The Ooze Ye Olde Baker Boy (290 keys) (ID "13874742453" of the unusual matches) = 220ish keys-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118776341#!/compare/1701734400/1701820800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052648734#!/compare/1701388800/1701820800

Sale #3

Sold for 350 keys (keys in buyer's side match)-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052648734#!/compare/1702944000/1703030400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198843742968#!/compare/1702944000/1703030400

Sale #4

Sold for a Time Warp Your Worst Nightmare (290 keys) (ID "13964470532" of the unusual matches)-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198843742968#!/compare/1703462400/1703548800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198346080922#!/compare/1703462400/1703548800

Sale #5

Bulk sale-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198346080922#!/compare/1712448000/1712534400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199173205697#!/compare/1712448000/1712534400

Sale #6

Sold for a Time Warp Platinum Pickelhaube (172 keys) + 145 keys (ID "14389166928" of the unusual matches) = 317ish keys-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199173205697#!/compare/1713571200/1713657600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052648734#!/compare/1713139200/1713657600

Sale #7

Not an actual sale, unusual can be seen in both backpacks-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052648734#!/compare/1713830400/1713916800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141373180#!/compare/1714089600/1714262400

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/1678158749

Sale #8

Sold for a Morning Glory Desert Marauder (190 keys) + a spelled Genuine Anger (7 keys) + a spelled Anger (3 keys) + 220 keys (keys in the buyer's side match) = 420ish keys-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140565712#!/compare/1705190400/1705708800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197892555#!/compare/1705190400/1705276800

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Mini of spelled Genuine Anger

Item 1.1

https://backpack.tf/item/928981864

Duped so some sales might look weird

Sale #1.1

Bulk sale-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198301049636#!/compare/1703721600/1703980800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197892555#!/compare/1703894400/1703980800

Sale #2.1

Bulk sale-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197892555#!/compare/1705190400/1705276800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140565712#!/compare/1705190400/1705276800

Sale #3.1

Sold for 7 keys (ID "14168933247" of the Anger matches)-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140565712#!/compare/1707696000/1707955200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180273565#!/compare/1707868800/1708041600

Sale #4.1

Not an actual sale, Anger can be seen still in the seller's side-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180273565#!/compare/1707868800/1708041600

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086312574#!/compare/1707782400/1708560000

Sale #5.1

Sold for 20 keys (ID "14241392554" of the Anger matches)-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086312574#!/compare/1709251200/1709510400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081955560#!/compare/1709251200/1709510400

Sale #6.1

Not an actual sale, buyer is the same that had not sold in Sale #4.1-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081955560#!/compare/1709251200/1709510400

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180273565#!/compare/1709683200/1710460800

Sales @ 7, 20

Excluding 20 given seller at 14 keys and probably the sale was influenced by who the seller was

https://gyazo.com/f56bf2bf4fffd7ac0b959316e74e37b9

Taking 7 flat here

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Mini of spelled Anger

Item 1.2

https://backpack.tf/item/1553334504

Sale #1.2

Bulk sale-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197892555#!/compare/1705190400/1705276800

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140565712#!/compare/1705190400/1705276800

Sale #2.2

Sold for 3 keys (ID "14098883240" of the Anger matches)-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140565712#!/compare/1706313600/1706400000

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060009141#!/compare/1706313600/1706400000

Only sale @ 3

Taking 3 flat here

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Sale #9

Sold with 22 keys for a Hellfire Base Metal Billycock? (most likely wrong but using for the Billycock regardless)-

Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197892555#!/compare/1709078400/1709251200

Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048724906#!/compare/1709424000/1709510400

Sales @ 220, 225, 290, 317, 350, 420

https://gyazo.com/6e516536855f19178cc8150bb5e01df3

Excluding 350 given it was sold for 290 afterwards and also excluding 420 even if its the only clean sale given no other sale reinforces taking the high range there and would count as a high outlier

Rounding and taking 220-320 here :3

why r u excluding half the range for arbitrary reasons

I'm not just excluding the sales out of arbitrary reasons? If you read the suggestion and the sales the 350 sale was sold for 290 afterwards which makes the 350 have to be excluded, and without any other sales in the high range and multiple ones being closer to each other around the 200-300 range 420 is clearly an outlier which is why it has to be excluded here.

420 is not a statistical outlier from the other sales even if you exclude 350

Its a 100 key jump from the closest non-excluded sale? The low end of 220 has a sale at 225 to back up taking it while the high end of 320 has a sale at 290 to back up taking it, the 420 sale has none close enough to do that so I'm not sure how it is not a statistical outlier.

statistical outliers are determined by calculation not just by eyeballing the numbers

By your logic, I can just take any range if my calculations deem correct? That just plays into taking arbitrary numbers since you are not paying attention to the numbers that the sales came up to here with proof. If you want examples of me excluding outliers you can see this here https://backpack.tf/suggestion/660dc0a6f019191dec0dd0d4

I was told by a moderator that 260 was too high compared to the other sales and sellers, it being barely 40 keys above the other sales mind you. I'm not sure why you are arguing in this case that 420 should be used if other suggestions have proven that if taking the sales into consideration should be enough to cancel sales that are too high or too low?

And no, I'm not just eyeballing the numbers as you said, I am using definitive proof of sales and what it has sold as mentioned. Just because it has sold once for that high does not mean that is the correct price this should be taken at because that just ignores the fact that the common selling point is around the range I suggested.

For the bonk boy the sale was excluded because there were sellers below that price. Also for that suggestion there were more sales to work with and thus more evidence to say that a particular sale should be excluded. In this case there are fewer sales in general and no sellers below 420. Also no you can't take any range because determining whether a particular number is an outlier from a set of data is a simple statistical calculation which you can look up if you care enough.

I know that but I was just providing an example of a case that would be similar to this with an even smaller difference between sales. If you want "actual proof" that excluding the outlier is fine here and that your simple calculation has errors have a moderator's words and opinions when I asked about the range that would have been the best to take here based on the sales.

https://gyazo.com/728b5eba7f7dce62a8929e502435dc2c

keep using opinions to make your range then ig, i'm not gonna explain the stats of an outlier to you. at least you documented all the in-date sales in your suggestion.

It is not just opinions, I am trying to explain to you what I'm doing and why it is the best thing to do. If you want to ignore what I'm saying then go ahead but if you want to insult my work then that's another thing. I would at least think I know what I'm doing with the amount of data I have gathered here, whatever your calculation or stats you are talking about are is not something you are meant to use here because it is not something that applies here if you actually knew how choosing a range works in these types of things.

Instantly any criticism is taken as insulting your work, that's not what I was trying to do. I brought it up because it should apply here and actually applies in any situation with outliers involved, because it's the definition of an outlier. The reason it's not written into the rules is probably because nobody here is aware of it.

New sales:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052648734#!/compare/1715040000/1715126400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193041193#!/compare/1714867200/1715126400 - Sold for a Burning Flames Law (258) + 158 keys = 416 keys (credit: Lemons)

Resold for 307 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199193041193#!/compare/1717027200/1717977600

I would've considered giving this a bigger range if it hasn't resold for less. The drop seems a bit more sketchy with the current buyers, but given how long this has been up for and the age of the sales, I'm willing to call this close enough for the time being.