Re-suggestion, new sale. Credits to Blaze.

Sales from the last sale are included.

Sale 1:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys + 56 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199207033310#!/compare/1707782400/1707868800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125348079#!/compare/1707782400/1707868800

https://backpack.tf/item/3127925958

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2024-02-14T15:05:28.864Z - keys were ~57.33 ref at the time

= 3.95 keys

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys + 50.77 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198360689424#!/compare/1707609600/1707696000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1707609600/1707696000

https://backpack.tf/item/13872791264

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&at=2024-02-12T15:05:28.864Z - keys were ~62.55 ref at the time

= 3.8 keys

Sale 3: - Credit to Blaze

Sold for 3 keys + 50.77 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043177646#!/compare/1715385600/1715472000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064273342#!/compare/1715299200/1715472000

https://backpack.tf/item/13872791264

Keys are currently ~70.55 ref

= 3.7 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for 3 keys + 12 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1711670400/1711756800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073386321#!/compare/1711670400/1711756800

https://backpack.tf/item/2902702700

Keys were ~63.94 at the time)

= 3.2 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1114;5;u3006

$6.60, Feb 10th

$6.80, Feb 24th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.72, Feb 10th

$1.70, Feb 24th

6.60/1.72 = 3.837

6.80/1.7 = 4

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199202854053#!/compare/1708560000/1715040000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199213327798#!/compare/1712361600/1712707200

https://backpack.tf/item/2715325742

SCM

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199213327798#!/compare/1713139200/1715040000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199280752580#!/compare/1712534400/1713744000

https://backpack.tf/item/2715325742

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/10026594848 - marketplace (sold before being scanned there)

https://backpack.tf/item/2815344259 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/2726924804 - mannco

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/Q8ga0fZ

https://backpack.tf/item/13872791264 - ~3.65 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9164675841 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12737242389 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/3127925958 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/3345933380 - marketplace

Sales at:

3.2

3.7

3.8

3.85 (marketplace)

3.95

4 (marketplace)

All sales beyond 3.2 keys are around 3 months old. Given the fact that the seller at 3.7 had been re-selling for about 3 months before finally selling, and the fact that they re-sold for the same amount they paid, it should be fine to exclude sales above 3.7 keys. They may have been common trading points 3 months ago, but they certainly aren’t now.

Taking 3.2-3.7 keys.