Re-suggesting on behalf of Flubs, credit to them for the first few sales.

Mini for Scorching Flames Federal Casemaker

Item 1 : https://backpack.tf/item/13898862091

Traded back and forth through mannco, gonna exclude

Item 2 : https://backpack.tf/item/12221724238

Withdrawn from a bot

Buyer : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031690733#!/compare/1706054400/1706572800

Seller : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048548360#!/compare/1706227200/1706400000

Untraceable

Deposited onto marketplace afterwards.

Item 3 : https://backpack.tf/item/12187834405

Sale 1

Buyer : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1703376000/1703462400

Seller : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132808609#!/compare/1701820800/1703462400

untraceable, dump to a stn bot anyway, gonna exclude

Sale 2

Buyer : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180923509#!/compare/1703548800/1703462400

Seller : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1703462400/1703548800

Untraceable

it was then deposited and withdrawn from mp

Sale 3

Buyer : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199156685368#!/compare/1707696000/1707782400

Seller : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180923509#!/compare/1707696000/1707782400

195 keys showing

Item 4 : https://backpack.tf/item/11433800071

Gambled on TF2Easy and then deposited on Marketplace

Item 5 : https://backpack.tf/item/10469120864

Sale 1

Buyer : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131911699#!/compare/1701734400/1701820800

Seller : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036347167#!/compare/1701734400/1701820800

170 keys showing.

Sale 2

Buyer : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131911699#!/compare/1704326400/1704412800

Seller : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113190503#!/compare/1704326400/1704412800

Traded for Burning Flames Salty Dog + 95 keys

Open suggestion for the salty dog at 225-265, taking 245 -95 = 150

Sale 3

Buyer : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076467300#!/compare/1704412800/1704585600

Seller : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113190503#!/compare/1704412800/1704499200

Untraceable

Item 6 : https://backpack.tf/item/9521613653

Sale 1

Buyer : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048548360#!/compare/1706227200/1706400000

Seller : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1706313600/1706400000

Untraceable

Sale 2

Buyer : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199017959799#!/compare/1707436800/1707350400

Seller : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048548360#!/compare/1707350400/1707436800

eems gambled, Untraceable

Item 7 : https://backpack.tf/item/9492817177

Sale 1

Buyer : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098968316#!/compare/1706659200/1706745600

Seller : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047293906#!/compare/1701043200/1706745600

1:1 for Scorching Flames Federal Casemaker, using there.

Sale 2

Buyer : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101508611#!/compare/1707004800/1707091200

Seller : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098968316#!/compare/1707004800/1707091200

185 keys showing up.

Sale 3

Buyer : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199041022874#!/compare/1707177600/1707264000

Seller : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199041022874#!/compare/1707177600/1707264000

untraceable, then deposit on marketplace

Item 8 : https://backpack.tf/item/12059052721

Buyer : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084086593#!/compare/1701993600/1702080000

Seller : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1701907200/1701993600

untraceable

Item 9 : https://backpack.tf/item/8813561447

Buyer : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198835086958#!/compare/1700438400/1706140800

Seller : https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1705968000/1706140800

untraceable

Newer sales:

Sale 1:

Sold for 195 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084086593#!/compare/1709596800/1709856000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198951016401#!/compare/1709596800/1709856000

https://backpack.tf/item/12059052721

Looks to have been on hold for a couple days or something.

= 195 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 192 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198331965222#!/compare/1709164800/1709337600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177971736#!/compare/1709164800/1709251200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Green%20Energy%20Brotherhood%20of%20Arms&at=2024-03-02T01:28:51.788Z - labelled as 192 keys + 1 ref

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Orbiting%20Fire%20Galvanized%20Gibus&at=2024-03-01T01:28:51.788Z - the Gibus labelled as 21 keys + 10.11 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/13188129540

Untraceable, but given the fact that we see exactly 213 keys leaving the bot’s inventory (the metal is negligible), it should be safe to assume that the BoA sold for 192 keys here.

= 192 keys

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 188 keys + ~1 key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199156685368#!/compare/1708819200/1708905600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1708819200/1708905600

https://backpack.tf/item/12187834405

= 189 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198273331466#!/compare/1709337600/1709510400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147024042#!/compare/1709769600/1709856000

https://backpack.tf/item/13188129540

Untraceable, probably gambled. The rest of the history is gambling-related.

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076467300#!/compare/1713139200/1713225600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198860735519#!/compare/1713139200/1713225600

https://backpack.tf/item/10469120864

Bulk for Harvest Moon Swagman’s Swatter

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198860735519#!/compare/1714608000/1714694400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966973786#!/compare/1714435200/1714694400

https://backpack.tf/item/10469120864

Bulk for Strange Companions + Strange Beams Killing Tree

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165597659#!/compare/1711238400/1711324800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1711238400/1711324800

https://backpack.tf/item/9521613653

Untraceable, Bubbling Pencil matches

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1711756800/1711843200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071162065#!/compare/1711756800/1711843200

https://backpack.tf/item/9521613653

Buyer bought more than one item from the same STN bot in the same compare link. We could potentially determine what was bought for what amount of keys, but it’s really not worth the effort. Excluding.

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071162065#!/compare/1713139200/1713312000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1713225600/1713312000

https://backpack.tf/item/9521613653

Bulk for Spelled Arcana Anger

https://backpack.tf/item/9492817177 - marketplace/mannco

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/VbEOcnI

https://backpack.tf/item/3340924236 - 200 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/12187834405 - 238 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/10469120864 - 250 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9521613653 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/12221724238 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/11840268139 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/11433800071 - marketplace

Sales at:

150

170

185

189

192

195

The 150 sale ideally shouldn’t be used here, I’d give it less weighting here regardless of what buy orders are at. Excluding 150.

170 was, apparently, significantly lower than buy orders around the time the sale occurred. It’s also a pretty old sale now, so I’ll exclude it.

Last suggestion had 200 in the range, but I could not find 200 for the life of me. Flubs rounded to the nearest 5 keys, and considering they had re-suggested from 190-200, it was probably a case of raising 195 to 200 or something. Dunno.

Taking 185-195 keys.