Sale 1:

Sold for 2 keys + 41.22 ref (keys were 63.94 ref at the time)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1711497600/1711584000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1711497600/1711584000

https://backpack.tf/item/12103787044

Gambled afterwards.

= 2.65 keys

Sale 2:

Sold with Holy Grail Fubar Fanfare for 5 keys + 56.11 ref (keys were 63.94 ref at the time)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199518360841#!/compare/1708992000/1709078400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1708992000/1709078400

https://backpack.tf/item/12103787044

2 days after this trade, I took a screenshot of STN’s buy orders for the items, totalling up to 5 keys + 53.55 ref

https://imgur.com/a/gh7uqGC

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/65d876cdf100969a060266f0 - seen in the last comment here

Should be fine to take ~2.5 keys for this.

= 2.5 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 2 keys + 25 ref (keys were 69.11 ref a time)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199390192641#!/compare/1713398400/1713484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198938314806#!/compare/1713398400/1713484800

https://backpack.tf/item/11090198108

= 2.35 keys

Sale 4:

Sold to a quickbuyer for 2 keys + 20 ref (keys were 69.11 ref at the time)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198938314806#!/compare/1713484800/1713657600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121830870#!/compare/1713398400/1713657600

https://backpack.tf/item/11090198108

= 2.3 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198303575674#!/compare/1710028800/1715904000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1715385600/1715472000

https://backpack.tf/item/12265183983

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199518360841#!/compare/1708992000/1709078400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1708992000/1709078400

https://backpack.tf/item/12103787044

Sold with Holy Grail Fubar Fanfare for 5 keys + 56.11 ref.

2 days after this trade, I took a screenshot of STN’s buy orders for the items, totalling up to 5 keys + 53.55 ref

https://imgur.com/a/gh7uqGC

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/65d876cdf100969a060266f0 - seen in the last comment here

Should be fine to take ~2.5 keys for this

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199258620602#!/compare/1710028800/1710115200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838549445#!/compare/1710028800/1710115200

https://backpack.tf/item/11090198108

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198838549445#!/compare/1712793600/1712880000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199394716732#!/compare/1712448000/1712880000

https://backpack.tf/item/11090198108

Some skins on either end, not ideal to use here.

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199394716732#!/compare/1713398400/1715904000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199390192641#!/compare/1713312000/1713398400

https://backpack.tf/item/11090198108

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/12636036499 - unusualified/gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/12524470109 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/11489234082 - mannco/marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/10822066133 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/10751367692 - unusualified

https://backpack.tf/item/10750742754 - mannco

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31201;5;u3006

$19.29, March 29th

We all know where this is going.

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/dyJrVCN

https://backpack.tf/item/11957137654 - ~3.4 keys

https://imgur.com/a/1dv77xt

https://backpack.tf/item/12265183983 - 2 keys + 42.66 ref (~2.6 keys given current key/metal rates)

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Screaming+Tiger+Taunt%3A+The+Drunken+Sailor

Sales at:

2.3

2.35

2.5

2.65

Ignoring key/metal rates, the 2.65 key sale sold for less than the STN seller. Would be silly to exclude 2.65 due to the seller. Keeping 2.65 in the range.

2.3 went to a quickbuyer, but the sale occurred shortly after 2.35. If we’re including 2.35, then 2.3 should be included too. A decent amount of these sales went to bots anyways. Additionally, the highest buyer is at ~2.2, followed by ~1.6, suggesting that 2.2 may fall shortly.

Taking 2.3-2.65 keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1716854400/1716940800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199082712264#!/compare/1713916800/1716940800

https://backpack.tf/item/12265183983

Untraceable, was the ~2.6 key STN seller.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124190757#!/compare/1719100800/1719878400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198274143077#!/compare/1719446400/1719532800

https://backpack.tf/item/14607660190

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198274143077#!/compare/1719446400/1719532800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123435100#!/compare/1719360000/1719532800

https://backpack.tf/item/14607660190

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198378355342#!/compare/1719187200/1719792000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143715421#!/compare/1719705600/1719792000

https://backpack.tf/item/13887530913

Untraceable/Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143715421#!/compare/1719705600/1719792000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306870587#!/compare/1719705600/1719792000

https://backpack.tf/item/13887530913

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059632349#!/compare/1717200000/1717286400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045068724#!/compare/1717200000/1717286400

https://backpack.tf/item/12970820726

Sold with some metal for ~4 keys in junk

B/O was most likely 3 given a current seller for the same value by the same store

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045068724#!/compare/1717286400/1717372800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120172574#!/compare/1717286400/1717372800

https://backpack.tf/item/12970820726

Sold for 2 keys, looks like

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120172574#!/compare/1717286400/1717372800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199566210064#!/compare/1716681600/1718064000

https://backpack.tf/item/12970820726

SCM

Wasn't keen on including 3 with a sale like that, but them re-selling for 2 keys instantly makes it invalid anyways.