Re-suggesting, using sales from the last suggestion onwards.

Sale 1:

Sold for 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059632349#!/compare/1707177600/1707264000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199236525199#!/compare/1707177600/1707264000

https://backpack.tf/item/12415487386

= 4 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198421652838#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198865304338#!/compare/1708214400/1708473600

https://backpack.tf/item/10998504523

= 4 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 3 keys + 45.33 ref (keys were 63.94 ref at the time)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1711411200/1711497600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198346410032#!/compare/1711411200/1711497600

https://backpack.tf/item/12415487386

= 3.7 keys

Sale 4:

Sold with 40 ref for 4 keys (keys were 60.94 ref at the time)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1708905600/1708992000 - Near ID: 14219275481

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199596108535#!/compare/1708905600/1708992000

https://backpack.tf/item/13849662482

Gambled afterwards.

= 3.35 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for 2 keys + 61.33 ref (keys were 78.94 ref at the time)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258028331#!/compare/1714694400/1715212800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199128560410#!/compare/1714521600/1714694400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Balloonibouncer&at=2024-05-10T00:00:58.085Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/7602332779

= 2.8 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199467427747#!/compare/1708300800/1708473600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199117399416#!/compare/1708300800/1708387200

https://backpack.tf/item/13849662482

Untraceable

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199117399416#!/compare/1708387200/1708473600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439498211#!/compare/1708387200/1708473600

https://backpack.tf/item/13849662482

Untraceable

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198439498211#!/compare/1708819200/1708905600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1708819200/1708905600

https://backpack.tf/item/13849662482

Untraceable

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199236525199#!/compare/1707350400/1709596800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1708646400/1708732800

https://backpack.tf/item/12415487386

Bulk

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203680409#!/compare/1713139200/1713225600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199116731634#!/compare/1713052800/1713225600

https://backpack.tf/item/12295928017

Sold with 22.66 ref for 3 keys?

Pretty sure it would’ve been 4 keys, but we don’t see the 4th. It’s likely the buyer sold their paint for the last key.

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198795826430#!/compare/1711065600/1711152000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1711065600/1711152000

https://backpack.tf/item/11659798514

Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199374449683#!/compare/1712793600/1712880000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199086749421#!/compare/1712620800/1712966400

https://backpack.tf/item/9880601359

Untraceable

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1707436800/1707523200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111292616#!/compare/1707609600/1707696000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Balloonibouncer&at=2024-02-13T11:09:16.976Z - labelled as 2 keys + 62 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/8880603673

Untraceable, missing info in history.

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198431561203#!/compare/1707523200/1708300800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1707782400/1707868800

https://backpack.tf/item/8825901811

Untraceable

#10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1708732800/1708819200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125108615#!/compare/1708732800/1708819200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Balloonibouncer&at=2024-02-26T11:09:16.976Z - labelled as 3 keys + 28 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/8825901811

Untraceable, missing info in history

#11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139085248#!/compare/1713225600/1713312000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199074452430#!/compare/1713312000/1713830400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Balloonibouncer&at=2024-04-17T11:09:16.976Z - labelled as 3 keys + 47 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/8530165094

Untraceable, 3 keys + some metal match

#12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198951050345#!/compare/1686268800/1713398400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199315621199#!/compare/1713312000/1713398400

https://backpack.tf/item/7696620958

Bulk for Celestial Summit Mean Captain

#13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203012784#!/compare/1709164800/1709251200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258028331#!/compare/1708646400/1710288000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Balloonibouncer&at=2024-03-01T11:09:16.976Z - labelled as 3 keys + 47.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/7602332779

Untraceable

#14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066348036#!/compare/1712448000/1712534400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199323667207#!/compare/1710979200/1714348800

https://backpack.tf/item/4981712607

Untraceable, unusualified by seller

#15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198166495399#!/compare/1707091200/1711670400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1709078400/1709251200

https://backpack.tf/item/10594325373

Bulk/untraceable

#16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198347024057#!/compare/1714780800/1714953600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198871199077#!/compare/1714694400/1715990400

https://backpack.tf/item/5374047344

Either sold for a bunch of junk or transferred between accounts

#17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198194358278#!/compare/1715212800/1715299200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125348079#!/compare/1715212800/1715299200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Balloonibouncer&at=2024-05-11T00:00:58.085Z - labelled as 2 keys + 61.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/8011761521

Untraceable, 2 keys + 42.33 ref match. Missing metal most likely went towards the key.

#18 (from the last suggestion)

https://imgur.com/a/inCpWmQ

https://backpack.tf/item/11659798514 - 3 keys + 33.22 ref (~3.4 keys)

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Holy+Grail+Taunt%3A+The+Balloonibouncer

Unscanned buyer’s backpack, won’t be able to tell what this sold for.

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30763;5;u3003

$8, May 10th & 20th

These will exceed 4 keys. Too high here. Excluding.

https://backpack.tf/item/11534101272 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/8091753466 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/8011761521 - gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/7159186287 - scammer

https://backpack.tf/item/6698106396 - bot transfer

https://backpack.tf/item/6675394090 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/5388118713 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/5092694170 - scammer

https://backpack.tf/item/5025139216 - gambled

https://backpack.tf/item/4963681079 - unusualified

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/4s5zbBK

https://backpack.tf/item/12295928007 - ~3.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7602332779 - ~3.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/8011761521 - ~3.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4998577402 - ~3.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5042335362 - ~3.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/5388796761 - ~3.4 keys

Sales at:

2.8

3.35

3.7

4 (2x)

In the last suggestion, I’d kept 3.7 in the range due to the abundance of higher sales. Given current sellers, it’s clear that 3.7 shouldn’t be included anymore. Excluding 3.7 onwards.

We have 3 (potential) 2.8 key gladiator sales that definitely shouldn’t be excluded. We have a confirmed sale (Sale 5), and 2 unconfirmed sales, one of which is included as #17 here, and one that I couldn’t find the history for:

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Balloonibouncer&at=2024-05-10T00:00:58.085Z

Taking 2.8-3.35 keys.