Greetings

I bought one for 48 refined:

https://i.imgur.com/lOLbIRX.png

Sales for crate #25 on the Steam Community Market from 24th June to 1st July 2024:

https://i.imgur.com/xeDS9CB.png

2 @ $1.11

2 @ $1.13

5 @ $1.14

2 @ $1.15

5 @ $1.16

3 @ $1.18

3 @ $1.19

5 @ $1.20

2 @ $1.22

14 @ $1.24

15 @ $1.30

1 @ $1.32

2 @ $1.36

2 @ $1.39

9 @ $1.40

6 @ $1.49

1 @ $1.50

4 @ $1.52

4 @ $1.54

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Series%20%2325

$1.11 to $1.54

$1.11 is about 0.555 keys

Median of ~$1.33, roughly 0.65 keys

$1.54 is about 0.77 keys

Therefore sales on scm in the past week is ~0.56 keys to 0.77 keys

Note that the current bp tf price for keys is outdated, hence I will be using the currently active suggestion's key price:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6681b5553872f59f40056c02

of 71.55 to 71.66 refined

Suggested price range of 40.11 refined to 55.11 refined

Average price for keys in the past week on scm:

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key

https://i.imgur.com/r5f7Sxz.png

$1.97 to $2.04

Median at $2.005, using $2 for neat rounding

Marketplace.tf sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5045;6;c25

https://i.imgur.com/4TZfAVr.png

https://i.imgur.com/xZ3vQ61.png

11 at 2.39 in the past week

Marketplace.tf key price:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

https://i.imgur.com/KIYzoSb.png

1.64 to 1.68 for sales in the past week, using 1.66 as the median

It comes to ~1.44 keys after rounding

It appears that sales on marketplace.tf are outliers compared to the sales on the steam community market

https://i.imgur.com/UZRjUL3.png

Updated sales from 2nd July to present:

3 at 0.72

1 at 0.74

1 at 0.97

1 at 0.98

4 at 1

1 at 1.01

4 at 1.03

1 at 1.05

1 at 1.06

3 at 1.08

4 at 1.09

1 at 1.10

1 at 1.11

1 at 1.12

2 at 1.13

3 at 1.18

2 at 1.19

Buyers at 0.99 or below:

https://i.imgur.com/Q52gkaF.png