Greetings

I bought one for 65 refined (It is also the recorded sale on gladiator.tf):

https://i.imgur.com/wNtTpMk.png

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Mann+Co.+Supply+Crate+%2324

Using this for the high end

Sales on the steam community market in the past week:

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Series%20%2324

https://i.imgur.com/IXpU0dj.png

1 at 1.01

2 at 1.07

3 at 1.10

3 at 1.13

3 at 1.14

4 at 1.16

2 at 1.17

4 at 1.18

18 at 1.20

5 at 1.21

2 at 1.22

4 at 1.23

4 at 1.25

8 at 1.26

7 at 1.27

25 at 1.28

1 at 1.37

18 at 1.38

2 at 1.39

2 at 1.43

1 at 1.44

1 at 1.45

3 at 1.50

Omitting sales 1.12 and below as there are currently 96 buyers at $1.12 at the time of posting

https://i.imgur.com/oUnLKQd.png

Using $2 as the median key price on the steam community market:

https://i.imgur.com/ufFr5ZJ.png

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key

1.50/2 x 71.6 refined = ~53.66 refined

1.13/2 x 71.6 refined = ~40.44 refined (using this as the low end)

Key price in refined based on the current ongoing suggestion for keys:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6681b5553872f59f40056c02

Sales on marketplace.tf:

https://i.imgur.com/RoJOugU.png

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5041;6;c24

6 at 2.49

It is however more than a week old since it sold on 23rd June

Divided by the price of keys on marketplace.tf of 1.68:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

https://i.imgur.com/VKschpO.png

It comes to a total of about 1.5 keys, looks like an outlier price to me