Greetings

Sales on SCM in the past week:

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Series%20%239

https://i.imgur.com/11RVaHG.png

1 at 1.20

2 at 1.24

7 at 1.27

1 at 1.29

1 at 1.39

1 at 1.40

4 at 1.42

1 at 1.43

1 at 1.46

2 at 1.48

6 at 1.50

1 at 1.51

1 at 1.54

2 at 1.58

5 at 1.59

20 at 1.62

3 at 1.68

4 at 1.69

7 at 2.03

4 at 2.05

5 at 2.13

There are many sellers below the high end sales on the community market at $2.03 to $2.13, therefore I consider them to be outliers.

There are also many buyers at $1.24 to $1.30, I am including $1.27 as there are 7 sales at $1.27 which proves that it is amongst the common trading prices for this crate, any sales at $1.24 or below would be considered too low due to the number of buyers at that price and higher.

Screenshot for the two points above:

https://i.imgur.com/aYLvc14.png

SCM Key price in the past week:

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key

https://i.imgur.com/L5lO3FO.png

$1.92 to $2.06

Taking $1.99 as the median key price

In conclusion the suggested price range is $1.27 to $1.69 for SCM sales, converted into the prices in refined:

1.27/1.99 x 71.6 = ~45.66 refined

1.69/1.99 x 71.6 = ~60.77 refined

Marketplace.tf sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5045;6;c9

https://i.imgur.com/ci4NvNu.png

https://i.imgur.com/DOxOdBO.png

3 at 2.69 in the past week

Key price on marketplace.tf in the past week:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

https://i.imgur.com/mAoJCAP.png

1.64 to 1.68

Taking 1.66 as the median key price

Therefore there are 3 sales at 1.62 keys in the past week on marketplace.tf

I consider the sales on marketplace.tf to be outliers due to it being over the highest price of $2.03 for sales on the SCM.