Sale 1:

Sold for 3 keys + 64 ref (~3.9 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1719446400/1719532800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199256622093#!/compare/1719446400/1719532800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Box%20Trot&at=2024-07-02T11:31:34.047Z - Confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/12474328618

= 3.9 keys

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 3 keys + 10.11 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208858863#!/compare/1719792000/1720051200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199128560410#!/compare/1719705600/1719792000

https://backpack.tf/item/9310171239

= 3.15 keys

Sale 3:

Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 56.88 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198300912581#!/compare/1719360000/1719446400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199216835040#!/compare/1719360000/1719446400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Box%20Trot&at=2024-06-28T11:31:34.047Z - confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/3901692712

= 2.8 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1719446400/1719532800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199256622093#!/compare/1719446400/1719532800

https://backpack.tf/item/12474328618

Untraceable, 2 keys match

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075299322#!/compare/1713139200/1713225600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198851487714#!/compare/1714953600/1718150400

https://backpack.tf/item/12006634208

Untraceable

#3 & #4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1717632000/1717718400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165122780#!/compare/1717632000/1717718400

https://backpack.tf/item/10461576596

Untraceable, seems to involve another unusual taunt. Traded back afterwards, also untraceable

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1718668800/1718755200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198423436746#!/compare/1718323200/1719532800

https://backpack.tf/item/10461576596

Bulk-ish for keys, can’t really determine exactly what it was listed for

https://imgur.com/a/KWjFAUx - B/O of 3 keys + 42.77 ref on June 6th, apparently

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069164158#!/compare/1716681600/1720137600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198973376733#!/compare/1719792000/1719964800 - no prior compare

https://backpack.tf/item/8009555028

Untraceable

#7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152172841#!/compare/1714089600/1715558400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057412106#!/compare/1715472000/1715558400

https://backpack.tf/item/6744104777

Backpack buy

#8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271636476#!/compare/1719705600/1719964800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199139085248#!/compare/1719619200/1719705600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Holy%20Grail%20Taunt:%20The%20Box%20Trot&at=2024-07-01T11:31:34.047Z - labelled as 3 keys + 10 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/4915789595

#9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1719273600/1719360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198300912581#!/compare/1719273600/1719360000

https://backpack.tf/item/3901692712

Untraceable, 3 keys match

https://backpack.tf/item/4742694518 - mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/14094310727 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/4354074323 - quicksell.store bots

Sellers:

https://imgur.com/a/mwLZgnD

https://backpack.tf/item/4915789595 - ~3.95 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3967051897 - ~3.95 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/8138611834 - ~3.95 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4354074323 - ~3.95 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4441332513 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3999413497 - 4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/4598507189 - ~4.4 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14094310727 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/6744104777 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/9568871532 - marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/8244740758 - marketplace

Sales at:

2.8

3.15

3.9

Given the abundance of sales at around current buy order price, it would be unreasonable to exclude them all as too low. There’s a lone non-bot buy order for any generic effect at ~3.25 keys, but that should not invalidate the purchases either. 3 buys at ~3.15 or lower in the last ~10 days alone support the inclusion of 3.15 keys. 2.8, however, is going to remain an outlier. Excluding 2.8.

Taking 3.15-3.9.